Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 March 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3395
level and was capped around the $1.3535 level. Liquidity is expected to taper off later in
the week and is expected to evaporate on Friday after the release of non-farm
payrolls.Data released in the U.S.
today saw the January S&P/ CaseShiller home price index climb 0.32% m/m and
decline 0.7% y/y while March consumer confidence improved to 52.5 from 46.4 in
February.Data to be released in the
U.S. tomorrow include MBA mortgage applications, March ADP employment, March
Chicago PMI, and February factory orders.The most important data of the week will be released on Friday when
March non-farm payrolls data are released.Some economists are focusing on job gains of +185,000 with the
unemployment rate expected to print at 9.7%.Economists will also be interested to see if average weekly hours worked
increase from last month‚Äôs reading of 33.8. Chicago Fed President Evans speculated the
U.S. unemployment rate might be 9.25% at the end of 2010 and above 7% at the
end of 2011.Fed Chairman Bernanke will
testify on 14 April to the Joint Economic Committee.In eurozone news, traders await the
release of EMU-16 unemployment tomorrow with some expecting the rate to print
as high as 10.0%, above the prior reading of 9.9%.Also, March flash EMU-16 consumer price
inflation data will be released tomorrow with some economists expecting a 1.1%
y/y gain, especially after German CPI data came in hotter-than-expected.Data released in Germany today saw February
import prices up 1.0% m/m and 2.6% y/y while French data saw Q4 gross domestic
product up 0.6% q/q and off 0.3% y/y.February producer prices will be released tomorrow.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•93.00 figure and was supported around the ¬•92.10
level. Finance minister Kan reported he
has no plans to ‚Äúchange the public finance law‚ÄĚ to allow Bank of Japan to
directly purchase more Japanese government bonds, adding the central bank‚Äôs
holdings are ‚Äúexpanding very rapidly.‚ÄĚData released in Japan today saw February industrial production decline 0.9%
m/m, a reversal from January‚Äôs +2.7% climb and an end to eleven consecutive
months of gains.Also, February
household spending declined 0.5% and the February jobless rate remained at
4.9%, its lowest level since March 2009.Notably, however, industrial production was up 31.3% y/y and most
economists believe the upward trajectory will continue.Dealers await the release of the BoJ Tankan
survey of corporate sentiment on 6-7 April.Japan‚Äôs fiscal year ends tomorrow and some dealers are speculating the
yen will continue to weaken in Q2.Japanese and Chinese officials will convene a summit this weekend and
the yuan‚Äôs exchange rate is likely to be discussed.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.01% to
close at ¬•11,097.14. U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ¬•94.75 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested bids around the ¬•124.15 level and was capped around
the ¬•125.45 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested
offers around the ¬•140.55 level while the
Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•87.50
level. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8257 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8264. People‚Äôs Bank of China official Xia Bin called
for a further appreciation of the yuan.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5125 level and was supported around the $1.4975 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q4 gross
domestic product upwardly-revised to 0.4% q/q and -3.1% y/y while the Q4 current
account balance printed at -¬£1.7 billion, up from -¬£5.9 billion in Q3.Also, Nationwide house prices were up 0.7%
m/m and 9.0% y/y.Cable bids are cited
around the US$ 1.4455 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8880 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.9000 figure.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0680 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0585 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw
February decline to 1.2 from 1.32 in January.The Swiss KOF Research Institute last week upgraded its 2010 and 2011
economic growth forecasts for the Swiss economy today to 1.7% and 2.2%,
respectively. Consumer price inflation is expected to be around 0.9% and 1.0%,
respectively ‚Äď also an upgrade from previous forecasts.Swiss President Leuthard last week said the
franc is ‚Äúat a quite crucial level‚ÄĚ and said it is up to the Swiss National
Bank to decide whether to intervene.Swiss
National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan reiterated last week that the central bank
will work to prevent excessive franc appreciation.Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand last
week reported the central bank will ‚Äúdecisively‚ÄĚ act against ‚Äúexcessive‚ÄĚ franc
strength, noting the central bank can intervene to a ‚Äúvery large extent.‚ÄĚHildebrand today called for banking
regulation reform.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.1180 level. The
euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.4305 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.0680 level.
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