stock markets struggled most of the day to stay positive in another round of
low volatility, light volume trading. Early in the session, the markets rallied
following the release of a better than expected consumer confidence report but
sellers took the opportunity to sell the move.
The prospect of higher interest rates seems to be weighing
on equities at this time. In addition, investors seem reluctant to buy equities
ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S. Jobs data. The E-mini S&P 500 is still in an
uptrend, but threatening to break further as buyer seem to be searching for
June Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes traded in a
tight range on light volume. Last week yields in both of these instruments rose
substantially as demand was less than stellar at the bond and note auctions.
This week traders have been standing aside because of Fridayâ€™s U.S. Jobs
Report. Traders seem to be reluctant to take a sizeable position ahead of this
important report. Oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally as
traders may lighten up positions ahead of the report.
The direction of the Dollar dictated the direction in June
Gold today. With inflation â€śsubduedâ€™ and the situation in Greece under
control, it looks as if gold will have to rely on the Dollar once again. The
stronger Dollar helped push gold toward the important $1000 psychological
Stronger demand for higher risk failed to boost June Crude
Oil, but this market was mostly affected by the falling Euro. Upside momentum was
building which could have driven this market through a pair of main tops at
83.70 and 83.80. Throughout most of the session, crude oil traded sideways to
lower. Unless the Euro turns positive, look for the downside pressure to
The Dollar reversed earlier weakness to close higher after U.S.
consumer confidence data came out better than expected. The friendly report
served as further evidence that the U.S. economy may be recovering
faster than the Euro Zone. This means the Fed is likely to begin raising
interest rates before the European Central Bank.
Upside momentum slowed considerably overnight which helped
weaken the Euro on the New York
session opening. The buzz over the European Union/International Monetary Fund Greece
bailout plan seemed to be fading also. As expected, the June Euro broke back
into a minor 50% retracement level at 1.3402. This price held, but the
short-covering rally following the test of this level was weak.
Traders also reacted to a shift in the interest rate spread
between U.S. Treasury and German financial instruments. 10-Year Note yields
rose above the German Bund making an investment in U.S. Treasuries a more
attractive investment. This also helped to pressure the Euro throughout day
Finally, the Dollar rose against the Euro as Greeceâ€™s
seven-year notes fell in the initial day of trading. News that the auction of
Greek 12-year bonds attracted less than half the debt offered also contributed
to the weakness in the June Euro.
The June British Pound posted a strong gain early in the
trading session following an upward revision in Fourth Quarter GDP. The final
GDP figure showed the economy expanded by 0.4% during the fourth quarter, up
from the previous estimate of 0.3%. Economists claim upward revisions in
services and construction were responsible for the increase.
Despite the bullish news, this market is still in a down
trend and struggled with a key 50% level at 1.5080. By the end of the day, the
British Pound was trading well below its high for the day.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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