Thursday March 10, 2005 - 10:05:33 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 10/3/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $54.36 yesterday, pausing in the current uptrend, and following the mild-weakness presented by some indicators. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.800, sliding down after being unable to break the 11,000 level. Also to remind the comments on the bearish signals that we were seeing for the index, which could be accelerated on a break below 10,750.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3440 level. After breaking the last and key fibonacci level, and confirming the bullish moving averages cross, the pair is cotinuing its uptrend with another leg of gains today. The single currency is again well supported by buy-on-dips traders, so that even makes retracements very shallow at the moment. But bear in mind that there are bearish signals coming from the intraday indicators, that could cause at least a pause in the move. We are also facing a strong resistance level 1.3450/75, therefore the bearish signals are well supported from a technical point of view too. Fresh longs shouldn’t jump in at these levels, but better wait for a retracement.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2685. We have the confirmation of a bullish cross by the moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.93 level. Almost unchanged with respect to yesterday’s levels, not as strong as the EUR for now, and showing some weakness on a daily basis. Therefore longs entered and profiting from the bullish rally should consider the chance of protecting /locking in profits.Yesterday’s levels also apply for today.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8530. We have the confirmation of the 20-day crossing the 50-day on the upside for some days now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Positive.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1530 level. The swiss franc is stronger across the board today, and it has followed perfectly its bullish moving averages cross (bearish if we talk for the USD/CHF pair). However, the pari is showing some strength on the daily basis indicators, so let’s be very careful with those warning signals, because they are alerting of a possible change in price action. I know it sounds a bit unrealistic now that the pair has plunged over 300 pips in just 5 sessions, but the indicators sometimes forecast the next price action quite in advance, so better to have that in mind. As I said yesterday, the USD/CHF pair is the most puzzling one, and could be the USD leading pair in the next move.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2125. We have a bearish cross confirmation of the 20-50 day moving averages for 2 days now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6965 level. Great and positive surprise by the pair, which managed to break the 50-day moving average on a closing basis. Therefore, the moving averages, specially the 50-day one, should act as good supports of the current bullish move for the pair now. Longs that joined the current rally should keep on locking in profits as the move continues. Clearing the 0.6980 on a closing basis leads the door open to the test of 0.70+ levels.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6842 today. Pair is above the 20 moving average and just shy below the 50-day simple moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Positive – signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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