Wednesday March 31, 2010 - 03:33:38 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 31-Mar-2010 - 0341 GMT
The US Equities closed up yesterday. The Dow (10907.42) closed up 0.11% and the Nasdaq (2410.69) closed up 0.26%. The Dow is nearing the end of a wedge on the daily charts, and it needs to be seen on which side does it break in the coming days. To see the Dow Candles, follow the link below:
The Asian Equities are trading Mixed today. The Nikkei (11130.98) is up 0.30%, the Shanghai (3113.203) is down 0.49% and the Hang Seng (21362.45) is flat. The Nikkei is nearing a trendline Resistance at 11250 on the weekly charts. To see the Nikkei Candles, follow the link below:
In India, the Sensex (17590.17) closed down 0.68% and the Nifty (5262.45) closed down 0.76% yesterday. The Sensex may move in a narrow range of 17500-18000 in the coming days before a break on either side is visible.
Crude (82.38) is continuing to trade higher and is oscillating near the immediate Resitance at 82.50. The stornger dollar is restricting it from further rise to test the previous high of 83.95 (11-Jan-10). On the downside Support is seen at 80.
Gold (1106.50), though continuing to trade above 1100, is not showing much momentum on its upmove. The stronger dollar retaining the downside pressure. Resistance is seen at 1120-25 region which might hold for sometime.
The Greenback is looking "cool" these days. The Euro lower today, near 1.3410, down from yesterday's high near 1.3537. The Yen has also weakened further with USD-JPY trading near 93.10. See further weakness for both the Euro and the Yen, targeting 1.33 and 95 respectively. The Euro-Yen Cross (125.00) is also potentially bullish, especially if it manages to close above 125.50.
Yen's weakness, funnily, has not translated into Aussie gains. Future rate hikes also seem to have been factored in by the market. The Aussie (0.9154) has come down sharply, honouring the Resistance in the 0.9220-40 region. We see this as another sign of changes taking place in the global currency markets. Trades that worked well for the last 5 years might not be guaranteed to work going forward.
The Pound (1.5075) has put up a relatively better show since yesterday, gaining against the Euro and the Aussie. Dollar-Swiss (1.0675) remains largely ranged between 1.0600-0750 with a mild upward bias.
Asian currencies have weakened alongwith the Yen and the Aussie and a dip in Equities. Dollar-Won trades a little higher near 1132.20 and the USD-SGD has also moved up, to trade near 1.4015, as compared to yesterday's low near 1.3989. Dollar-Rupee had closed higher at 45.08 yesterday, as compared to the day's low near 44.88, and might rise further towards 45.20 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The US Treasury yields were also little changed yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y yields were quoting near 1.06% and 3.86% respectively.
In Europe, the Irish bonds have outperformed most of other Euro member nations and the investors are betting that it would be less difficult for Ireland in cutting its budget deficit. Whereas funding concerns continue to grip Greece amid 7Y and 12Y Note sales.
09:00 GMT EU Unemp
...Expected 10.0%...Previous 9.9%
12:15 GMT US ADP Emp
...Expected 38K...Previous -20K
12:30 GMT CA GDP
...Expected 0.5%...Previous 0.6%
...Actual 4.9%...Previous 4.9%
UK GDP Q4 '09 (Fnl)
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.3%
US Case Schiller
...Actual -0.7%...Previous -3.1%
US Cons Conf
...Actual 52.5...Previous 46.4
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