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Wednesday March 31, 2010 - 09:38:56 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 31/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 31,
Initial Jobless Claims
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of
the Initial Jobless Claims.
This is a seasonally adjusted measure of the
number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during
the given week. This data is
collected by the Department of Labor, and
published as a weekly report. The
number of jobless claims is used as a
measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates
that there are fewer people being
hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are
quite volatile. Usually, a move
of at least 35K in claims, is required to
signal a meaningful change in job
A higher than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD. Analysts predict a
future reading of 440.00K.
The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's
low, and the
10-month low 1.3266, reaching a new top for this correction at
which it dropped strongly for more than 150 pips. The collapse
happened late last week is completely expected, not only that, but
believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and
medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit
when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the
contrary, we look
forward with eager to that. But after dropping from 1.38 to
1.32 in a few
days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing and
holds no surprises.
Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for this
correction, the most
important of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at
importance to this level is the fact that the long term
line is getting closer and closer to it. As for the short
term, we see
resistance at 1.3441, and if broken, we will continue to correct
wave down from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541
level with continuous rise in its importance 1.3606. As for the
is at 1.3369 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the
yesterday's top 1.3535. We do expect large targets to be met for
term, such as 1.3283 & 1.3190.
1.3369: the bottom of the rising trend line from 1.3266 on hourly charts.
1.3283: Thursday's low.
* 1.3190: Apr 30th
* 1.3441: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from
* 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
Dollar-Yen broke the
resistance specified in yesterday's report 92.68, and
the first suggested target 93.20, in a move in the same
direction of the
technical outlook which followed the break of the falling
trend line on the
daily chart, which we have talked about several times
reaching 93, the technical outlook was positive, and after
reaching 93, the
technical outlook is still positive. But, as we approach
the important top
93.75, we recommend caution of a possible drop. Since it
is pretty important,
we will take 93.75 to be our "resistance of the day",
and we do not expect
this "correctionless" rise to continue unless it is
broken. But if it does,
the price will jump above 94 for the first time
since August, targeting 94.35
and may get a taste of 95 as it targets 95.05.
As for the support it is at
93.00, and breaking it would mean that the price
has settled for a top at
93.58, for the time being at least, and that we
will now correct the big rise
we just saw.
* 93.00: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short
* 92.13: Feb 19th low.
* 91.49: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from
* 93.75: Jan 8th high.
* 94.35: Aug 4th
* 95.05: Aug 24th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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