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Wednesday March 31, 2010 - 10:02:12 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Monthend

The Daily Forex View


10:00 GMT- Mar 31 ( The quarter-end and the Japanese fiscal yearend have finally arrived. The Japanese fiscal yearend ended with a whimper with the bulk of repatriation flows, which is typical, completed in the middle of March. The ADP jobs report is the main focus today. It is of greater interest than usual because it counts only net private sector jobs. The non-farm payroll report on Friday will include temporary hiring for the once a decade census, so those data are expected to be heavily distorted. 

After today most markets will start to be impacted by the Easter break On Friday most markets will be closed. U.S. markets which are open will close mid-morning once the data are out. Street estimates are for the first strongly positive monthly employment growth in a while (+200 to 300K jobs), with employment bolstered by temporary census hiring and a bounce back from the poor weather in February. So far we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.   

The EUR is trading better vs. the USD and is mixed on its of crosses. German unemployment data were much better than expected today, but EZ jobs data were weak. Greece and the Eurozone may have extricated themselves from their recent mess, we will see. Even if they have, one must still wonder where the EUR goes once short-covering demand has run its course? It is important to accept that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue. 

The JPY is weaker. There has been a lot of chatter that for a variety of reasons a number of long JPY hedges have to be unwound. Corporations reportedly have over hedged (bought the JPY against) currencies such as the USD  based on projected USD sales. These excessively long JPY positions will have to be closed. This activity is coming just as the fiscal year ends and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.

The risk trades are sending mixed signals. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed.  Oil and gold are higher. Equities are mixed. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are the counter to risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.

In North America, U.S. mortgage statistics are due along with ADP private jobs survey is set. Furthermore the Chicago PMI, Factory Orders and Weekly crude inventories are due. Canada will release its latest GDP report.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:53
EUR 1.3463 48 JPY 125.64 117 JPY 141.53 178
GBP 1.5166 104 GBP 88.77 -29 CHF 160.87 21
CHF 1.0607 -59 CHF 1.4280 -28 CHF vs.    
JPY 93.32 54       JPY 87.98 99

EUR/USD is higher. The equity correlation trade has been working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have been a weight off and on.

EUR/CHF is down.
USD/CHF is weaker. The SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross. 

USD/JPY is up. EUR/JPY is stronger. The Japanese  government and BOJ have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary policies.

GBP/USD is up and the EUR/GBP is down. Political uncertainty and mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         9:53
CAD 1.0156 -39 AUD 0.9163 -19 Gold 1109 6.45
CNY 6.8258 -10 NZD 0.7098 4 WTI 82.90 0.44

The CAD is stronger. The Bank of Canada is becoming less dovish as the economy stabilizes. Canada will be one of the early major economies to raise interest rates.

The AUD and NZD are mixed. Quarterly rate hikes are seen from the RBA this in 2Q10. The RBNZ has signaled a rate hike by mid-year.

Gold and Oil are up. Both are risk trades. Gold is the anti-dollar.



Equities           9:53
NIK 11090 -7 DAX 6155 12 DJIA 10907 -1
HSI 21239 -135 FTSE 5689 16 S&P 1173 0
SSEC 3109 -19 SMI 6903 0 NAS 2411 0
ASX 4876 -41       TSE 12044 0

Far East equity markets closed mostly weaker. European bourses are mixed. U.S. equities are mixed. The U/S. 10-yr was last 3.86%, 0bps.

Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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