European Market Update: German March unemployment unexpectedly declined
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
European Market Update: German March unemployment unexpectedly declined
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FI) Finland Jan Final Trade Balance: -â‚¬52M v -â‚¬55M prior - (HU) Hungary Q4 Current Account: â‚¬456M v â‚¬315Me - (FR) France Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e - (TU) Turkey Feb Trade Balance (TRY): -3.3Bv -3.0Be - (TU) Turkey Q4 GDP Q/Q: 2.3% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 4.3%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 4.0% v -3.6% prior - (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account: $1.5Be v $2.0B prior; Overall Trade Balance: $119M v $5.0B prior; Total Trade Balance: $450M v $591M prior; - (TH) Thailand Feb Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 30.3% v 28.0%e; Manufacturing Prod Seasonal Adj: 210.1 v 203.3 prior; Capacity Util: 67.8% v 67.4% prior - (TH) Thailand Feb Business Sentiment: 51.3 v 50.4 prior - (DE) Denmark Feb Unemployment 4.1% v 4.3%e - (DE) Denmark Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e, Y/Y: -3.2% v -3.4%e - (GE) Germany Mar Unemployment Change: -31K v 7Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 8.2%e - (IT) Italy Feb PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3%e - (SP) Spain Jan Current Account: -â‚¬6.5B v -â‚¬2.6B prior prior - (GE) German Feb new equipment orders M/M: +3.0%; Y/Y: +26% - VDMA - (HK) Hong Kong Feb Gov't Budget (HKD): -0.9B v 49.1B prior - (IC) Iceland Feb Final Trade Balance (ISK): 14.0B v 13.9B prior - (HK) Hong Kong Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.7% v 9.4% prior - (EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 10.0% v 10.0%e - (EU) Euro Zone Mar CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.1%e - (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI (incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e - (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.5% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.2%e - (GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.1% v 2.6% prior - (SZ) Swiss Mar KOF Leading Indicator: 1.93 v 1.90e - (IT) Italy Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.5%8.7%e v 8.5% prior - (IR) Ireland Mar Live Registry Change: 0.6K v -2.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 13.4% 13.4% prior - (IR) Ireland Feb PPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.8% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: What had been a flat European open has seen some levels of upward drift in a low volume European morning. Trading sentiment from Asia was decidedly downside as Q1 wrapped up on a weak note. This motivation carried through the pre-market session in Europe that continued to focus on the effects of Ireland's NAMA announcement yesterday, German discussions on a financial sector levy and the expectation that the US will open offshore properties to energy speculation. Additional macro flows included the reduction of sovereign risk issues related to the Baltic States as Moody's revised upwards their outlooks and China's PBOC reaffirmed its monetary policy outlook. In sector trading financials, autos and steel names stood out. Financials have traded mixed/downside on analyst calls from BNP and continued commentary from Greece on further supply expectaitons. After market speculation on a 5-6% asset swap between Renault [RNO.FR] and Daimler [DAI.GE] continued consolidation speculation in the auto space. In individual movers, after market earnings from Italian listed spirits maker Campari [CPI.IT] rallied the high end beverage sector while a hot response to the UK's OFCOM from BskyB [BSY.UK] sent those shares sharply higher. Positive rotation in European equities has been broadly driven by German data that included a better than expected March unemployment figures and VDMA commentary on industrial order flows. On the last day of Q1, and one day short of the Easter holidays, trading volumes have been weak with equities positioning themselves for the first of two US employment reads this week, the ADP expected at 8:15EST. ||
- Individual equities: Bank of Ireland [BKIR.IR]: Reports 9-Month Operating loss â‚¬1.84B, Net interest income â‚¬2.17B; in talks on how to raise more capital; releases statement on capital review. || SMA Solar [S92.GE]: Reports Prelim FY09 Net profit â‚¬161.1M v â‚¬119.5M y/y, EBIT â‚¬228.4M v â‚¬167.4M y/y, Rev â‚¬934M v â‚¬681.6M y/y. || Renewable Energy [REC.NO]: Replaces Existing Syndicated Credit Facilities and Issues NOK4B in New Equity. || Evraz [EVR.UK]: Reports FY09 Net loss $1.26B v gain $1.8B y/y, Rev $9.77B v $20.4B y/y. || CNOOC [883.HK]: Reports FY09 Net profit CNY29.5B v CNY31Be, Rev CNY105B v CNY100Be. ||
- Speakers: Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) chief Christodoulou stated that: Greece was planning to issue a global USD denominated bond by end of April/May. He noted that the agency targeted to pre-fund Greek needs and not surprise the markets. He did concede his job was a 'challenge'. Greece needs to raise â‚¬32B for the remainder of 2010 with â‚¬11.6B in the month of May*** Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) issued its Q1 monetary report. The PBoC reiterated that it would maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure appropriate credit growth. It stated that the Economic rebound had been cemented but faced complicated domestic and overseas economic situations. It would flexible through the use of multiple policy tools and ensure reasonable liquidity and work towards achieving its 2010 loan targets. To strike balance between inflation expectations and restructuring economy ***SNB Danthine reiterated the view that the SNB has the resources to counter any excessive CHF currency strength. He also noted that the current monetary policy remained appropriate *** VDMA Economist Wiechers stated that absolute level of German orders still remained well below where it was during the recent boom years with domestic orders in particular remained "mixed." *** ECB's Trichet stressed the importance of avoiding structural problems in unemployment. He also reiterated that concerns over the fragility of the economic recovery. Trichet reiterated that confidence was the key ingredient in achieving a sustainable recovery . Says no contradiction between among ECB members fiscal policy and economic recovery and expressed satisfaction at the anchoring inflation expectations. He also noted that the Greek rescue package reached at last week's EU Summit was appropriate ***EU Commission Q1 Report on Euro Area noted that the economy was facing significant headwind and persistant weakness in domestic demand was a concern. Robustness of recovery has yet to be tested. Unemployment could rise more in some member states and become entrenched and the labor outlook dampened demand. Export success should translate into higher domestic demand.Pent up correction of imbalances is a risk to Euro Area
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The USD was softer against the major European currencies with dealers noting that fix-related flows dominating the price action for USD in session coupled with passive month/quarter end portfolio rebalancing. EUR/USD was testing the 1.3470 area aided by a better-than-expected German unemployment change data. The inflation front continued to simmer in the Euro zone with the Mar flash CPI estimate hitting 1.5% (but still below the ECB target of 2.0%). **8The Japanese fiscal year ended with an abundant of JPY currency sellers with USD/JPY hitting 93.60 during Asia. *** There was speculation that China was considering expanding the current daily trading band for the yuan exchange rate but the PBoC Q1 monetary report issued during the European morning made no mention of the Yuan.
- Geo-Political: US Pres Obama, while meeting with French Pres Sarkozy advocated a new and accelerated sanction scheme against Iran. Presenting a unified voice, the Presidents' stated that concerted efforts had been made to bring Russia and China on board. The comments were made as press reports carried the story that a top Iranian nuclear scientist had defected, in a CIA organized mission back in May 2009. *** US Pres Obama has been reported as set to announce a new, vastly expanded US offshore oil and gas drilling program. Extended stretches of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Alaska coasts could add up to 167M new acres of prospecting territory. The action is a final overturn of a 1990 executive moratorium that banned federal offshore leasing.** The German cabinet has reportedly approved a financial sector levy that is expected to lead to a 7% yearly tax. The tax, seeking to draw in approx â‚¬1B/year, will create a designated bailout fund that could be tapped to support financial names in a future economic crisis. The Cabinet meeting is being attended by French Fin Min Lagarde, as France is seen as broadly interested in a similar program.
***Notes/Observations: - Month/quarter end suggests thinning liquidity conditions - German March unemployment unexpectedly fell 31K - Magazine report from China calls for band widening in April and attributing it to inflationary pressures - Fed's Fisher: Too early to raise interest rates but will be raised with meaning when time comes. - First of the US employment gauges due up with ADP today
***Looking Ahead*** - (PD) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: No Changes expected in the Base Rate from the current 3.50% level - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 26th: No est v -4.25 prior - 7:30 (IN) India Q4 Current Account: -$10.0Be v -$12.6B prior - 7:55 (EU) OECD's Gurria - 8:00 (SA) South Africa Feb Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.1Be v -3.3B prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Q4 Current Account (EUR): No est v -â‚¬1.3B prior - 8:15 (BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.0% prior - 8:15 (US) Mar ADP Employment Change: +40Ke v -20K prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Gross Domestic Product: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior - 9:00 (BE) Belgium Feb Budget Balance YTD: No est v -2.9B prior - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 2.2B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 16.2B prior - 9:45 (US) Mar Chicago Purchasing Manager: 61.0e v 62.6 prior - 10:00 (US) Feb Factory Orders: 0.5%e v 1.7% prior - 10:00 (US) Mar Milwaukee NAPM: No est v 56.0 prior - 10:30 (US) DOE weekly inventories: -12:00 (CO) Colombia Feb 14.1%e v 15.3% prior - 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on employment - 12:30 (US) Fed's Duke - 13:30 (EU) ECB's Bini Smaghi - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
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