U.S. Equity markets are trading flat ahead of this mornings
ADP private jobs data report. Pre-report estimates are for the report to show
an increase of 40,000 jobs. A better than expected number is likely to drive
stocks higher as it would represent an improving economy. The key to sustaining
a rally today will be if U.S.
investors decide to chase the markets higher. Lately, investors have shied away
from buying strength, feeling that the best way to play this market is to buy
Trading has been light and volatility low this week as the
stock market closes out a rather bullish first quarter. The strength this
quarter came as a surprise to most analysts who expected flat returns due to
last yearâ€™s huge run-up.
Rising interest rates have been negatively influencing the
markets this week as 30-year bond and 10-year note yields have risen. This is
creating competition with the equities because of the high guaranteed rates the
government debt instruments are offering.
June Treasury Bonds are expected to react to todayâ€™s ADP
number after several days of sideways trading. Investors have been standing
aside for most of the week because of oversold conditions and this weekâ€™s key
jobs data. The creation of more than 40,000 jobs is likely to put selling
pressure on the T-Bonds and T-Notes. A less than expected number should
underpin the Treasuries, but gains could be limited because of Fridayâ€™s
The weaker Dollar is helping to support June Gold. Regaining
$1109.40 is a sign of developing strength. A move through $1115.20 should
trigger an acceleration to the upside. The direction of the Dollar today will
dictate how this market moves.
The stronger Euro and weaker Dollar is helping to boost June
Crude Oil. Overnight action suggests that a bullish ADP report will drive crude
oil through the two recent tops at 83.70 and 83.80.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against the European
currencies buoyed by fresh Euro Zone economic data and spillover buying
following yesterdayâ€™s strong U.K. GDP report. Worse than expected Australian
retail sales is pressuring the Pacific Rim
currencies and speculators are driving up the Canadian Dollar ahead of this
mornings GDP data.
Trading has been light overnight as traders await this
morningâ€™s U.S. ADP private employment report. The ADP number is expected to
show an increase of 40,000 jobs. A number greater than the pre-report guess
could be bullish for the Dollar if traders decide to take into consideration a
possible interest rate hike sooner than expected by the Fed. The Dollar could
fall if traders decide to turn up demand for higher risk assets because of the
news. A weaker than expected report is likely to also be bullish for the
Dollar. Given the nature of the trade recently, it is still unclear whether
this market likes the Dollar because of the improving economy or if it likes
the Dollar as a safe-haven. Either way, traders should look for the first
volatile trading action this week following the release of this report.
Later in the morning, traders will be watching the Chicago
PMI and U.S. Factory Order reports to look for clues that the economy is
improving. Traders are looking for this business barometer report to come in
between 58.3 to 63.0 with a consensus of 61.0. After posting a strong 1.7% gain
in January, this morningâ€™s February Factor Orders report is expected to rise by
The June Euro is trading higher overnight following a better
than expected Euro Zone economic report. News that Euro Zone consumer prices increased
more than expected helped the Euro advance against the Dollar. This news
supported the currency and offset the news that Euro Zone unemployment edged
higher as expected.
On Tuesday, the Euro was under pressure because of a drop in
the Greek 7-year Bond that was sold in a well-received auction the previous
day. A new issue of Greek 12-year Bonds was poorly demanded by traders, sending
doubts throughout the Euro Zone that Greece would be able to live up to its
Technically, the Euro behaved as expected by correcting back
50% of the first leg up from the recent bottom. The short-term range is 1.3267
to 1.3537 with a retracement zone at 1.3402 to 1.3370. Early last night, the
Euro completed a 50% retracement of this swing when it tested 1.3384. Buyers
came in at this level to drive the market higher, putting it in a position to
turn the main trend to up on the daily chart following a breakout over the last
swing top at 1.3537.
The June British Pound is trading higher this morning
following Tuesdayâ€™s better than expected 4Q GDP report. The overnight rally
helped this market breakout over a key 50% price level at 1.5080. The trend
remains down until the last swing top at 1.5381 is broken, but the formation of
a secondary higher bottom at 1.4797 is giving this market a bullish spin. Gains
could be limited today because of political concerns. Traders are watching the
upcoming election closely for signs of a possible â€śhung Parliamentâ€ť. The
British Pound would likely weaken if this occurs since it would curtail any
progress in reducing the huge U.K.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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