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Wednesday March 31, 2010 - 16:29:00 GMT
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Stocks Trading Flat Ahead of ADP Jobs Data

U.S. Equity markets are trading flat ahead of this mornings ADP private jobs data report. Pre-report estimates are for the report to show an increase of 40,000 jobs. A better than expected number is likely to drive stocks higher as it would represent an improving economy. The key to sustaining a rally today will be if U.S. investors decide to chase the markets higher. Lately, investors have shied away from buying strength, feeling that the best way to play this market is to buy the dips.


Trading has been light and volatility low this week as the stock market closes out a rather bullish first quarter. The strength this quarter came as a surprise to most analysts who expected flat returns due to last year’s huge run-up.


Rising interest rates have been negatively influencing the markets this week as 30-year bond and 10-year note yields have risen. This is creating competition with the equities because of the high guaranteed rates the government debt instruments are offering.


June Treasury Bonds are expected to react to today’s ADP number after several days of sideways trading. Investors have been standing aside for most of the week because of oversold conditions and this week’s key jobs data. The creation of more than 40,000 jobs is likely to put selling pressure on the T-Bonds and T-Notes. A less than expected number should underpin the Treasuries, but gains could be limited because of Friday’s Employment Report.


The weaker Dollar is helping to support June Gold. Regaining $1109.40 is a sign of developing strength. A move through $1115.20 should trigger an acceleration to the upside. The direction of the Dollar today will dictate how this market moves.


The stronger Euro and weaker Dollar is helping to boost June Crude Oil. Overnight action suggests that a bullish ADP report will drive crude oil through the two recent tops at 83.70 and 83.80.


The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against the European currencies buoyed by fresh Euro Zone economic data and spillover buying following yesterday’s strong U.K. GDP report. Worse than expected Australian retail sales is pressuring the Pacific Rim currencies and speculators are driving up the Canadian Dollar ahead of this mornings GDP data. 


Trading has been light overnight as traders await this morning’s U.S. ADP private employment report. The ADP number is expected to show an increase of 40,000 jobs. A number greater than the pre-report guess could be bullish for the Dollar if traders decide to take into consideration a possible interest rate hike sooner than expected by the Fed. The Dollar could fall if traders decide to turn up demand for higher risk assets because of the news. A weaker than expected report is likely to also be bullish for the Dollar. Given the nature of the trade recently, it is still unclear whether this market likes the Dollar because of the improving economy or if it likes the Dollar as a safe-haven. Either way, traders should look for the first volatile trading action this week following the release of this report.


Later in the morning, traders will be watching the Chicago PMI and U.S. Factory Order reports to look for clues that the economy is improving. Traders are looking for this business barometer report to come in between 58.3 to 63.0 with a consensus of 61.0. After posting a strong 1.7% gain in January, this morning’s February Factor Orders report is expected to rise by 0.4%.


The June Euro is trading higher overnight following a better than expected Euro Zone economic report.  News that Euro Zone consumer prices increased more than expected helped the Euro advance against the Dollar. This news supported the currency and offset the news that Euro Zone unemployment edged higher as expected.


On Tuesday, the Euro was under pressure because of a drop in the Greek 7-year Bond that was sold in a well-received auction the previous day. A new issue of Greek 12-year Bonds was poorly demanded by traders, sending doubts throughout the Euro Zone that Greece would be able to live up to its financial obligations.


Technically, the Euro behaved as expected by correcting back 50% of the first leg up from the recent bottom. The short-term range is 1.3267 to 1.3537 with a retracement zone at 1.3402 to 1.3370. Early last night, the Euro completed a 50% retracement of this swing when it tested 1.3384. Buyers came in at this level to drive the market higher, putting it in a position to turn the main trend to up on the daily chart following a breakout over the last swing top at 1.3537.


The June British Pound is trading higher this morning following Tuesday’s better than expected 4Q GDP report. The overnight rally helped this market breakout over a key 50% price level at 1.5080. The trend remains down until the last swing top at 1.5381 is broken, but the formation of a secondary higher bottom at 1.4797 is giving this market a bullish spin. Gains could be limited today because of political concerns. Traders are watching the upcoming election closely for signs of a possible “hung Parliament”. The British Pound would likely weaken if this occurs since it would curtail any progress in reducing the huge U.K. budget deficit.



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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