Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Setting Up for Jobs Friday
The Daily Forex View
Setting Up for Jobs Friday
20:00 GMT- Mar 31 (global-view.com) The quarter-end and the Japanese fiscal yearend are finally in the rear-view mirror. The Japanese fiscal yearend ended with a whimper with the bulk of repatriation flows, which is typical, completed in the middle of March. The quarter-end in North America saw above average price volatility. The ADP jobs report saw a -23,000 decline n jobs. This was weaker than expected and suggested the non-farm payroll report on Friday will be a disappointment.
The figure is expected to be boosted by temporary hiring for the census, but how many have been hired is unknown .Street estimates are for the first solidly positive monthly employment growth in a while (+100 to 300K jobs). A bounce back from the poor weather in February is still expected, but we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal. Starting Thursday many markets will start to be impacted by the Easter break. On Friday most markets are closed. The few U.S. markets which are open on Friday will close mid-morning once the jobs data are out.
The EURUSD is trading sharply higher and the EURGBP is steady. The GBPUSD is up in line with the weaker USD. German unemployment data Wednesday were much better than expected, but the EZ unemployment figure was weak. EZ CPI (HICP) was higher than expected. Greece and the Eurozone may have extricated themselves from their recent mess for now. Even if they have, one must still wonder where the EUR goes once short-covering demand has run its course? It is important to accept that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue.
The EURCHF has weakened sharply today. No signs of the SNB yet. We always have to wonder if they are waiting in the wings? The USDCHF is sharply lower as well.
The USDJPY pair is higher, while the EURJPY cross is up strongly. This week here has been a lot of chatter for a variety of reasons that there is an overhang of long JPY hedges (vs. the USD and EUR) that will have to be unwound. There have been reports that corporations are over hedged currencies based on overly optimistic foreign revenue projections. This activity is coming just as the fiscal year ends and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. In fact, Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.
The risk trades have been sending mixed signals and that is significant. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. Australian retail sales data were surprisingly weak today. Many still feel a rate hike is still probable next week Oil and gold are higher. Equities are mixed. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are the counter to risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
Far East equity markets closed mostly weaker. European bourses are mixed. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.84%, -3bps.
Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Early Thursday, Japanreleases its closely followed Tankan Survey. Australiawill also release the latest trade data. In Europe , Swiss PMI data are due and Eurozone PMI data are awaited. U.K.manufacturing data are also slated. In North America, U.S.weekly jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and construction data will be released. Natural Gas inventories are on the docket as well.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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