U.S. Equity investors bought stocks on the early session dip
like they had been doing to erase all of their earlier losses, but the buying
was scare enough to trigger a weak finish anyway. Mid-session gains were
limited because major players remained on the sidelines ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Report leading to the lower close.
On Thursday, U.S. Equity markets opened sharply lower
following a worse than expected ADP private jobs data report. Traders were
looking for the creation of 40.000 jobs but the actual report showed that
24,000 jobs were lost. This pressured stocks because it is a sign the economy
is still weak.
Trading has been light and volatility low this week as the
stock market closed out a rather bullish first quarter. The strength this
quarter came as a surprise to most analysts who expected flat returns due to
last yearâ€™s huge run-up.
Rising interest rates have been negatively influencing the
markets this week as 30-year bond and 10-year note yields have risen lately.
This is creating competition with the equities because of the high guaranteed
rates the government debt instruments are offering.
June Treasury Bonds held on to their small gains triggered
early in the session after the ADP number indicated the economy was still weak.
Gains were limited because of Fridayâ€™s U.S. jobs data report. Pressure has
been on the Treasury Bonds and Notes because of rising yields. Thursdayâ€™s
Initial Claims report is likely to move the Treasuries. Fridayâ€™s U.S. employment
report is now up in the air following the release of a negative ADP number.
The weaker Dollar helped to support June Gold. Regaining
$1109.40 is a sign of developing strength. The move through $1115.20 triggered
an acceleration to the upside but gains were limited by profit-taking. The
direction of the Dollar will continue to dictate how this market moves.
The June Crude Oil contract took out two recent swing tops
at 83.70 and 83.80, extending the current uptrend. The stronger Euro helped
drive up Dollar denominated crude oil. A stronger Euro and building upside
momentum could take this market to the high of the year at 85.95 over the
near-term. The rally in crude oil is all about the Dollar. Many traders felt
that Thursdayâ€™s gains were limited by President Obamaâ€™s decision to increase
drilling. The Department of Energy Report failed to move the market much as the
2.9 million barrel increase was in line with estimates.
The U.S. Dollar traded sharply lower on Wednesday against the
European currencies and gave back most of its gains against the others
following a weaker than expected U.S. ADP private jobs data report. The
direction was strong but traders may have taken advantage of thin trading
conditions ahead of Thursdayâ€™s and Fridayâ€™s key economic reports.
On Thursday, traderâ€™s get to face U.S. Jobless Claims early
followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending. Job claims
will shed a little more light on the U.S. jobs situation. On Friday, the
government will release the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Volatility may be
strong early Thursday as traders may once again try to take advantage of the
thin trading conditions.
The reaction in the Euro and British Pound on Thursday could
be traders feeling that the poor ADP employment number is a sign that the
recovery is not as strong as previously forecast and that the Fed is still
months away from an interest rate hike. Investors also priced in the
possibility that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday will come in less
than the currently estimated gain of 200,000 jobs.
The strong move in the June Euro turned the main trend up on
the daily chart following the trade through the last main top at 1.3437.This market still has to overtake the
percentage retracement zone at 1.3542 to 1.3607 to trigger an acceleration to
The June British Pound finished higher because of the
stronger Euro and on the thought that the weak ADP report means the U.S. is less
likely to raise interest rates for â€śan extended periodâ€ť.Wednesdayâ€™s rally was initiated by
follow-through buying following Tuesdayâ€™s better than expected U.K.
4Q GDP Report.
The stronger Euro helped to drive the June Swiss Franc
sharply higher. Traders bought the Swiss Franc on the belief the Swiss National
Bank would be less likely to intervene to defend its currency and economy
against a decline in the Euro. In addition, traders felt the Fed had no reason
to raise interest rates since the U.S. ADP jobs data indicated the economy was
still in a weak state.
The June Japanese Yen started out lower this morning, but
rallied following the weaker than expected U.S. ADP jobs report. The poor jobs
report triggered a rally in the Japanese Yen as traders read this report as a
sign the U.S.
economy was weaker than previously estimated. The Japanese Yen began to weaken
at the mid-session in response to the firming equity markets and finished near
its low on the close.
The weak U.S.
economy helped to underpin the June Canadian Dollar. In addition, the strong
Canadian GDP data suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to hike
interest rates before the Fed. This widening interest rate differential helped
to draw investors into the Canadian Dollar. Additional help was provided by
higher crude oil and gold.
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