10:00 GMT- Mar 31 (global-view.com) The first business day of the month is always very interesting as it sees the latest set of manufacturing PMI releases. They tend to be a useful predictor of future economic activity and an interesting comparative study. In Europe and the U.K., the data were surprisingly strong. The Swiss manufacturing PMI surged higher. U.S. data are due later. the Japanese quarterly Tankan survey is out was mixed at best. Forex markets are in a pre-holiday frame of mind.
The U.S. sees weekly jobless data and the manufacturing PMI later today. Traders are also setting up for U.S. non-far payrolls on Friday. After the disappointing ADP jobs report -23,000 decline. .Street estimates are now for a gain of +100 to 200K jobs. A bounce back from the poor weather in February is still expected, but we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal. On Friday most markets are closed. The few U.S. markets which are open on Friday will close mid-morning once the jobs data are out.
The EURUSD is trading easier and the EURGBP is softer. The GBPUSD is up in line with the weaker USD. The EZ flash manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 56.6 from 56.3 and 54.2 in February. U.K. march CIPS manufacturing PMI was 57.2 vs. 56.6 in February. We still wonder where the EUR goes once short- covering demand has run its course. Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue.
The EURCHF has weakened further today. The Swiss PMI was at a boom level of 65.5 in March vs. 57.4 in February. The weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR No signs of the SNB yet, but always have to wonder if they are waiting in the wings? The USDCHF is slightly lower.
The USDJPY pair is modestly lower, while the EURJPY cross is down. The quarterly Bank of Japan Tankan Survey was a mixed bag and did not suggest a strong performance for the quarter ahead, Capex projections were weak.
There has been a lot of chatter for a variety of reasons that there is an overhang of long JPY hedges (vs. the USD and EUR) that will have to be unwound. There have been reports that corporations are over hedged currencies based on overly optimistic foreign revenue projections. This activity is coming just as the fiscal year ends and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. In fact, Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.
The risk trades continue to send mixed signals and that is significant. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. After disappointing Australian retail sales data yesterday, many still feel a rate hike is still on the table for next week Oil and gold are higher. Equities are mixed. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are the counter to risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
Far East equity markets closed mostly higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.84%, +1bps.Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, U.S.weekly jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and construction data will be released. Natural Gas inventories are on the docket as well.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.