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European Market Update: European Manufacturing PMIs expand at faster pace

Thursday, April 01, 2010 5:57:48 AM

 European Market Update: European Manufacturing PMIs expand at faster pace


- (IN) India Mar Manufacturing PMI: 57.8 v 58.5 prior
- (RU) Russia Q4 Current Account: $16.3B v $15.6B prior
- (GE) Germany Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.4%e
- (SW) Sweden Mar PMI Survey: 61.1 v 62.0e
- (HU) Hungary Stats Office on 2009 Budget Balance: Deficit-to-GDP at 4.0% v 3.9% target
- (IR) Ireland Mar NCB Manufacturing PMI: 53.0 v 48.6 prior
- (TU) Turkey Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 50.9 prior
- (PD) Poland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 v 52.4 prior
- (SP) Spain Mar manufacturing PMI: 51.8 v 49.1 prior; highest reading since Aug 2007
- (SZ) Swiss SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 65.5 v 59.0e
- (CZ) Czech Mar manufacturing PMI: 56.8 v 54.3 prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Consumer price Index M/M: % v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 3.7%e ; CPI Core Y/Y: % v 0.4%e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex reserves w/e mar 26th: $440.0B v $448.2B prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 53.7 v 52.6e; highest since Jun 2007
- (FR) France Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 56.5 v 56.3e; highest since Dec 2006
- (GE) Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 60.2 v 59.6e ; fastest sector growth since Apr 2000
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 56.6 v 56.3e; highest since May 2006

- (IT) Italy Feb Hourly wages M/M: 0.0 % v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e
- (UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 57.2 v 56.8e; best reading since 1995
- (UK) BOE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey: Corporate credit availability rose in Q1
- (SA) South Africa Mar Kagiso PMI: 55.6 v 62.1e; first decline in eight months

- Equities: Equity markets in Asia kicked off Q2 with solid gains in both Japan and Asia. In Japan, the Nikkei printed new 18-month highs while Dai-ichi [8750.JP] IPO'd under strong demand. This rollover into Europe has been supported by a wave of PMI readings that continue to show growth (ahead of 50) and beat estimates. Swiss, French, German and Euro Zone PMI reads reflected this flow and served as the main catalyst to equity and energy markets. Equity movers have shown a diverse number of upwards rotators. Energy, banking and heavy industrial names benefited throughout the session on demand growth expectation in both Asia and Europe. Auto's have remained a hot sector with positive commentary on BMW [BMW.GE] from Credit Suisse adding particular attention to the name. New contract wins for Technip [TEC.FR] and a further share buyback boost from Randgold [RRS.UK] moved those shares higher. A notable sector that traded lower was telecom, following OFCOM suggestions on cutting UK mobile contract termination contracts, and an acceleration of number roll over from carrier to carrier. Shares of Vodafone [VOD.UK], France Telecom [FTE.FR] and Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE] moved lower on this commentary. Ahead of a four-day weekend, volumes have held up relatively well with equities putting in solid gains by 5:30EST.

- Individual equities: Scottish and Southern [SSE.UK]: Acquires upstream gas assets for $423M. || DIC Assets [DAZ.GE]: Raised approx €47M via 7.84M share placement at offer price of €6/share. || Richemont [CFR.SZ]: Offers to purchase all share in Net-a-porter; states Net-a-porter management support offer. || MAN [MAN.GE]: Seeking approval for €2.5B convertible bond offer (up to 27% of market cap); extension for €188M secondary share offer through 2015 - AGM. || Bharat Heavy [BHEL.IN]: Reports FY10 Net INR42.9B v INR30.4B y/y, Rev INR340.5B v INR275.1B y/y. || BMW [BMW.GE]: Exec: Sees FY10 German unit sales up y/y. ||

- Speakers: Poland PM advisor Filar stated in a newspaper interview that Poland sought to keep the IMF credit line as an insurance policy in case the Zloty currency (PLN) comes under speculative attack. He noted that the central bank's view that Poland does not need the $20.5B IMF facility showed huge optimism. Any clash with central bank would hurt the country's credibility and could cause the Zloty to fluctuate and hurt bond prices and stressed that smooth cooperation between Gov't and central bank are essential *** BOE Quarterly Credit Conditions noted that Corporate credit available rose in Q1 to 21.9% v 16/3% q/q and was expected to increase further in Q2. The UK default rates on mortgages declined in Q1 and expected to remain unchanged in Q2 *** UK Chancellor Darling: Rules nothing out with regards to tax rates. He reiterated that deficit cuts must not harm economic recovery *** China Banking Regulator's Liu (CBRC) stated that China's 2010 economic performance likely to be better than in prior year. The regulator stated that China's city banks held CNY5.68T in assets at the end of last year. *** Russia Fin Min Kudrin stated that Russia was working with the CIS members to increase trade in national currencies and would discuss the matter by the middle of the year *** South Africa Treasury reported FY10 Tax Revenue of ZAR598.5B above its expectations of ZAR590.4B. It saw the eficit to GDP ratio of 6.8% compared to theor prior view of 7.3%. it noted that the tax collections reinforced economic recovery indications *** Moody's stated that it was closer to determine the level within "AA" sovereign level rating range in which Ireland's ratings are likely to settle following launch of NAMA "bad bank" program. It NAMA a balancing act for Ireland's public finances but did interpret the NAMA idea as rather favorable for the Irish Gov't and the banking sector ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The positive PMI manufacturing data released steadily during the Asian and European session provided an incentive for rising risk appetite which weighed upon the USD sentiment but the green back managed to hold a steady tone ahead of the NY morning. Commodities reacted the most to the PMI data as NYMEX oil hit its best level since Oct 2008 as it tested $84.50/barrel and gold held above the $1,115/oz area. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.35 area as dealers noted that its upside momentum appeared to have waned over the last few hours. Dealers are noting that interest rate differentials as the three-month Euro Libor fixing registers all time lows while USD libor hitting six month highs. EUR/CHF cross hit fresh all-time lows below 1.42 as the peripheral situation in Europe continues to simmer. The 10-year spread between Greece and germany continues to be elevated despite the EU Summit agreement last week. Currently the spread id around the 240 area but off its highs registered on Wednesday above 345bps. ***The end of the Japanese fiscal year is prompting some optimism that the JPY weakness could continue this month as repatriation flows cease. However, one astute European dealer noted that history might be against the trend. With the exception of 2007, April trading for USD/JPY pair has exhibited a reversal in the March price action (up or down) moves in every year since 2000. USD/JPY at 93.50 ahead of the NY session.

- Geo-Political: Chinese Pres Hu Jintao has announced intentions to attend a nuclear security summit in the US scheduled for April 12-13. The summit stop has been added to a wider South American trip. Pundits have stated that the visit is a clear sign that US/China tensions have receded following a US arms sale to Taiwan earlier in the year.
Following yesterday's announcement from the US DoD on a 60-day contract bid extension for the KC-X tanker program, all eyes have once again fallen on EADS. The firm released a terse statement noting that it had asked for 90-days, and would consider the offer. The KC-X program has dragged on since 2001 and currently stands at a contract value of approx $35B.

- European Manufacturing PMI hitting multi-year highs in key countries
- World Gold Council confirms it is partnering with China's ICBC bank to promote gold investment
- NYMEX crude nearing levels last seen in Oct 2008
- Fresh positioning on pause ahead of US jobs report tomorrow and a 4 day holiday weekend in most countries

***Looking Ahead***
- (IN) India Feb Trade Balance: $ v -$10.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: % v 11.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: % v 35.5%prior
- (RU) Russia Mar Reserve Fund: $ v $59.8B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $ v $89.6B prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): v -10.6B prior
- 7:30 (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 42.1K prior; Y/Y: No est v -77.4% prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 17.0%e v 16.0% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 440Ke v 442K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.618Me v 4.648M prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.8 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: $800Me v $394M prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 57.0e v 56.5 prior; Price Paid: 67.0e v 67.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: -1.0%e v -0.6% prior
- 10:30 (US) Natural Gas Inventories
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New car registrations: No est v 20.65 prior
- 14:00 (IT) Italy Mar Budget balance: No est v -€13.0B prior
- 16:00 Fed's Bullard



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