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Thursday April 1, 2010 - 10:53:16 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 01/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 1,
Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm
Payrolls. The payroll measures the change in the number of employed people
during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll
accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross
domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of
data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best
overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can
be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3441 and reached the first
suggested target 1.3551 successfully, stopping only 8 pips above it. . The
collapse which happened late last week is completely expected, not only that,
but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive
medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit surprised when
we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look forward
with eager to that. But after dropping from 1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising
correction is normal & logical thing and holds no surprises. Thus, we should
focus of the projected targets for this correction, the most important of which
is the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.3606. Adding importance to this level is
the fact that the long term descending trend line has finally touched the
Fibonacci level. The possibility of forming a medium term top between the
current price & 1.3606 is getting larger by the minute. Thus we do not
recommend taking a positive attitude towards the EURUSD ahead of 1.3606, and we
also recommend to be on the watch for any indications that a medium term top is
forming in the neighborhood. Short term resistance is 1.3606, breaking it would
indicate a jump to 1.3703 and then 1.3794. Short term support is at 1.3494,
breaking it would frustrate the Euro and send it to 1.3394 & may be
â€˘ 1.3494: Asian session low.
â€˘ 1.3394: the
bottom of the rising channel on 1.3266 on hourly charts.
â€˘ 1.3283: Thursdayâ€™s
â€˘ 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
â€˘ 1.3703: Mar 8th high.
â€˘ 1.3794: Mar 12th
Dollar-Yen traded below
93.75 for the whole past 24 hours, settling for a nearby top at 93.63. But, as
we approach the important top 93.75, we recommend caution of a possible drop.
Since it is pretty important, we will take 93.75 to be our â€śresistance of the
dayâ€ť, and we do not expect this â€ścorrectionlessâ€ť rise to continue unless it is
broken. But if it does, the price will jump above 94 for the first time since
August, targeting 94.35 and may get a taste of 95 as it targets 95.05. As for
the support it is at 93.00, and breaking it would mean that the price has
settled for a top at 93.58, for the time being at least, and that we will now
correct the big rise we just saw. If this break takes place, we expect the
Dollar to fall strongly targeting 92.13 first, and may be 91.53
â€˘ 93.26: the rising trend line from 92.10
on hourly charts.
â€˘ 92.13: Feb 19th low.
â€˘ 91.49: Fibonacci 38.2% for the
rise from 88.12.
â€˘ 93.75: Jan 8th high.
Aug 4th low.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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