The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed in limited action. Higher
metals, crude oil and equities indicate demand is strong for higher yielding
assets. This may pressure the Dollar once the New York market opens. Trading conditions
are thin because of Fridayâ€™s important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Investors
are shying away from taking large positions ahead of this report, thereby
The Dollar weakened on Wednesday following the release of a
worse than expected ADP private employment report. Traders were looking for an
increase of 40,000 jobs but the report showed a 24,000 job loss. This could be
a sign that the economy is weakening and that the Fed will keep interest rates
low for some time.
Todayâ€™s Weekly Initial Claims Report will shed further
insight on the U.S.
jobs outlook. Traders are expecting this weekâ€™s report to show initial claims
of 440,000. Later in the morning, the U.S. reports ISM Manufacturing and
Construction Spending. Both reports could trigger mild reactions but are not
expected to be market movers because of this weekâ€™s focus on jobs data.
The EUR USD is trading flat to lower following an uneventful
overnight session. News that German retail sales in February fell 0.4% versus a
forecast of flat failed to move the market. On Wednesday, the main trend turned
up on the daily chart, but gains have been limited since this change took
place. The daily chart indicates that a retracement zone at 1.3542 to 1.3607 is
currently providing resistance. In addition a long-term down trend line at
1.3620 is also stopping the advance.
Bullish Euro traders have to be concerned about what is
happening in the capital markets regarding Greece. Greek bond prices have been
falling since their initial offering earlier in the week. This could be a sign
of a lack of confidence in Greeceâ€™s
ability to finance its debt. The falling bond prices are an indication that the
recently approved rescue plan has failed to reduce borrowing costs. Greek bonds
have basically become a burning match to investors.
GBP USD short-traders continue to cover positions in
reaction to the positive 4Q GDP Report from earlier in the week. Thin trading
conditions because of this weekâ€™s U.S. jobs data is also helping to
drive this market higher, due to the absence of a major seller. The main trend
is down but this market is rapidly approaching the last main top at 1.5381. A
move through this price will turn the main trend to up. Based on the
intermediate-term range of 1.5814 to 1.4780, traders should look for a possible
technical bounce off a 50% price level at 1.5297. In addition, a downtrending
Gann angle and .618 price level combine to form a resistance cluster at 1.5417
to 1.5419. Fundamentally, worries have eased concerning the economy and the U.K. credit rating, but traders are still
worried about the U.K.
budget deficit and the possibility of a hung parliament following the upcoming
The sideways Euro is causing limited trading in the USD CHF
overnight. Currently this market is resting on a key 50% level at 1.0513 and
trading slightly above a main bottom at 1.0506. A break through this level
could trigger a further decline to 1.0423. The direction of this pair will be
controlled by the movement in the Euro.
Stronger global equity markets are helping to boost the USD
JPY for the third day in a row. Overnight buyers drove this market up to just
shy of the January top at 93.77. A strong New York stock session could trigger a
breakout over this level today. Despite yesterdayâ€™s weaker ADP report, traders
seem to be betting on a strong Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday.
Greater demand for higher risk commodities and equities is
helping to pressure the USD CAD. Yesterdayâ€™s close below a .618 level at 1.0152
was a sign of weakness. Downside momentum is once again building which is
setting up the possibility of a trade to parity over the near-term. Wednesdayâ€™s
Canadian GDP Report suggests that the economy is growing. Traders are once
again pricing in the strong possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of
Canada at its next meeting. Even if this doesnâ€™t take place, traders are
confident the BoC will hike rates before the Fed.
The AUD USD is up slightly because of the sharply higher
equity markets. Yesterday the Aussie sold off early after weaker than expected
retail sales were reported. Aggressive traders who bet a strong retail sales
report would lead to a rate hike in April pared their positions, leading to
Thursdayâ€™s weaker trade. Some traders remain positive the Reserve Bank of Australia will
hike rates 25 basis points anyway because of the stronger housing markets.
Earlier this week, traders drove the Aussie higher because of hawkish comments
from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.
The NZD USD is trading lower after failing to take out a key
50% retracement level at .7124 earlier in the week. Downside momentum is strong
enough to retest support at .6992. Following Thursdayâ€™s bearish Aussie retail
sales report, traders are reducing bets the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
will raise interest rates in June.
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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