Stocks are trading higher overnight on the prospects of a
global economic recovery following the release of better than expected European
and Chinese manufacturing reports. The rally started overnight in Japan when the
Nikkei average rose fueled by the weaker Yen. Talk that Japanese investors will
seek better returns in foreign markets helped support the U.S. equity
markets. News that Chinaâ€™s
purchasing managerâ€™s index was up more than expected also contributed to the
The inability of U.S. stock markets to fall sharply
after Wednesdayâ€™s worse than expected ADP jobs data is helping to lead to
follow-through buying overnight. Traders bought early weakness yesterday
indicating that the bulls are not ready to give up on this market despite its
lofty price levels. The only thing holding back the June E-mini S&P 500
appears to be the lack of volume and participation by major stock players ahead
of Fridayâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
The indices are called higher this morning, but traders are
not sure whether U.S.
investors will chase this market higher. Five days of sideways trading has the
major indices set up for a major move. The only thing missing at this time is a
June Treasury Bonds are trading lower overnight following
Wednesdayâ€™s short-covering rally. Oversold conditions and the worse than
expected ADP jobs data helped contribute to yesterdayâ€™s rally. Yields have been
rising because of increased competition from corporate bonds, but traders seem
reluctant to take on more risk ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S. jobs data. A weak initial
claims number this morning could send T-Bonds higher but gains could be limited
by the retracement zone at 116â€™19 to 117â€™00.
June Gold is trading higher, indicating stronger demand for
higher yielding assets. Regaining a retracement level at $1115.20 will be a
sign of higher markets to follow. Falling back below $1109.10 will be a sign of
weakness. A weaker Dollar will underpin gold today.
Speculation that the global economic recovery is back on
track is helping to boost June Crude Oil prices. Bullish manufacturing reports
out of China and the U.K. are
leading to speculation that demand will increase for energy. Strong upside
momentum could drive this market to the high of the year at 85.95 now that the
two tops at 83.70 and 83.80 have been cleared.
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed in limited action. Higher
metals, crude oil and equities indicate demand is strong for higher yielding
assets. This may pressure the Dollar once the New York market opens. Trading conditions
are thin because of Fridayâ€™s important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Investors
are shying away from taking large positions ahead of this report, thereby
The Dollar weakened on Wednesday following the release of a
worse than expected ADP private employment report. Traders were looking for an
increase of 40,000 jobs but the report showed a 24,000 job loss. This could be
a sign that the economy is weakening and that the Fed will keep interest rates
low for some time.
Todayâ€™s Weekly Initial Claims Report will shed further
insight on the U.S.
jobs outlook. Traders are expecting this weekâ€™s report to show initial claims
of 440,000. Later in the morning, the U.S. reports ISM Manufacturing and
Construction Spending. Both reports could trigger mild reactions but are not
expected to be market movers because of this weekâ€™s focus on jobs data.
The June Euro is trading flat to lower following an
uneventful overnight session. News that German retail sales in February fell
0.4% versus a forecast of flat failed to move the market. On Wednesday, the
main trend turned up on the daily chart, but gains have been limited since this
change took place. The daily chart indicates that a retracement zone at 1.3542
to 1.3607 is currently providing resistance. In addition a long-term down trend
line at 1.3620 is also stopping the advance.
Bullish Euro traders have to be concerned about what is
happening in the capital markets regarding Greece. Greek bond prices have been
falling since their initial offering earlier in the week. This could be a sign
of a lack of confidence in Greeceâ€™s
ability to finance its debt. The falling bond prices are an indication that the
recently approved rescue plan has failed to reduce borrowing costs. Greek bonds
have basically become a burning match to investors.
June British Pound short-traders continue to cover positions
in reaction to the positive 4Q GDP Report from earlier in the week. Thin
trading conditions because of this weekâ€™s U.S. jobs data is also helping to
drive this market higher, due to the absence of a major seller. The main trend
is down but this market is rapidly approaching the last main top at 1.5381. A
move through this price will turn the main trend to up. Based on the
intermediate-term range of 1.5814 to 1.4780, traders should look for a possible
technical bounce off a 50% price level at 1.5297. In addition, a downtrending
Gann angle and .618 price level combine to form a resistance cluster at 1.5417
to 1.5419. Fundamentally, worries have eased concerning the economy and the U.K. credit rating, but traders are still
worried about the U.K.
budget deficit and the possibility of a hung parliament following the upcoming
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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