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Thursday March 10, 2005 - 11:59:29 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 10/03/05.......1137 GMT

Euro @ 1.3426/9....Buy on dip
-----------------------------
R: 1.3426 / 1.3455 / 1.3483
S: 1.3394 / 1.3368-40 / 1.3313
The pattern over the last 2 days has been that the Euro has remained quiet through the European session and has been pulled sharply up in the eary US session. If this is repeated today, then a rise towards 1.3480 may be seen. Immediate Support at 1.3395 and then a stronger Support at 1.3368 (near the day's low). IN CASE these Supports are broken, then the Euro could be in danger of falling towards 1.3290-70. We'll try buying on a dip towards 1.3370 (if the market obliges)

Order:
Buy EUR 20K at 1.3378, SL 1.3356, TP 1.3461


$-Yen @ 104.08/12....BOJ makes selling difficult
-------------------------------------------------
R: 104.33-48 / 104.61-89 / 105.19
S: 104.11-04 / 103.89-75 / 103.29-17
Layers of Resistances overhead now and the pressure remains on the downside. But, the BOJ is also present. So, in case it pushes the Dollar above 104.33, a further rise towards 104.70 might be seen and the 104-106 range would come back into play. On the downside, the 104.66 Low now needs to break to enable a fall towards 103.10 and lower.

No direct USD-JPY positions for us, we are holding EUR-JPY Short positions.


Euro-Yen @ 139.72/7....Building Short position
----------------------------------------------
R: 139.98 / 140.15-21 / 140.90
S: 139.40-34 / 139.13
We are trying to build a Short position in the Cross in the belief that there's a very strong multi-year trend Resistance on the Monthly Close charts in the 139.50-140.50 region, and it may hold. The danger to the position is that the Cross might climb towards 140.90-141.00 tomorrow.

Statistically, we see 140.15-21 as being the maximum High for today. Although the morning's purchases have cooled off a bit, the immediate danger to our Short positions will reduce if the Cross falls below 139.50 instead of climbing to/ past 104.20.

Holding:
EUR 20K Short at 139.26, SL 140.29, TP 137.90
EUR 20K Short at 139.80, SL 140.39, TP 137.90

Order (CHANGED):
Sell EUR 20K at 140.19, SL 140.42 (down from 140.69), TP 137.90


$-Swiss @ 1.1527/32....Holding Short
------------------------------------
R: 1.1579 / 1.1601 / 1.1631-53
S: 1.1518 / 1.1493-89 / 1.1444-39
The Dollar has been trading below 1.1570 so far through the day. Now some follow-through Sales is needed when the US comes in, to take the market down to 1.1490. To put things in perspective, the 1.1490-50 region might be a decent place to buy some Dollars if only for a corrective rally.

Holding:
$25K Short at 1.1540, SL 1.1615 (down from 1.1620), TP 1.1490. As soon as the market trades 1.1510, bring SL down to 1.1580


Cable @ 1.9294/99...Up? Down? Sideways?
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.9307 / 1.9330-48 / 1.9387
S: 1.9267-63 / 1.9231 / 1.9201
The Cable has traded quietly between 1.9225-9300 so far today and could continue in this mode through the US session as well. In case of a range break on the upside, look for 1.9360. In case of a range break on the downside, look for 1.9190. Since the chances of Up, Down and Sideways are 33.33333% each, we have no choice but to stay out


Happy Trading!

 

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