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Thursday April 1, 2010 - 20:20:46 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- SNB-- April Fools Day!

The Daily Forex View

SNB--  April Fools Day!

20:00 GMT- Mar 31 ( Today saw the latest set of manufacturing PMI releases and they were mostly very strong in Europe and the U.S. They can be a useful predictor of future economic activity and an interesting comparative study. In Europe and the U.K., the data were surprisingly strong. The Swiss manufacturing PMI  surged higher. The Japanese quarterly Tankan survey was mixed at best. The SNB hit N.Y. with a lunchtime surprise.

Friday is near universal holiday. Traders also setting up for U.S. non-farm payrolls and then they are going to leave. After the disappointing ADP jobs report -23,000 decline, street estimates are for a gain of +100 to 200K jobs. Gains are expected to come from the hiring of temporary census workers. Also a bounce from the poor weather in February is expected, although we have noticed that the March weather-related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal. 


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 20:04
EUR 1.3584 78 JPY 127.53 125 JPY 143.50 160
GBP 1.5286 109 GBP 88.87 -12 CHF 161.16 115
CHF 1.0543 0 CHF 1.4322 82 CHF vs.    
JPY 93.88 38       JPY 89.04 36


The EURUSD is now trading higher and the EURGBP is up. The GBPUSD is up in line with the weaker USD. The EZ flash manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 56.6 from 56.3 and 54.2 in February. U.K. march CIPS manufacturing PMI was 57.2 vs. 56.6 in February. We still wonder where the EUR goes once short- covering demand has run its course.  Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue.

The EURCHF has weakened further today but then surged higher just before lunch in N.Y. The SNB surprised the market as the EURCHF tumbled to new record lows. The central bank intervened not only in the EURCHF cross but in the dollar legs of that relationship as well. They reportedly were active in size as they tried to tell the markets they mean business. That remains to be seen. The Swiss PMI was at a boom level of 65.5 in March vs. 57.4 in February. The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR  

The USDJPY pair is higher, while the EURJPY cross is up. The quarterly Bank of Japan Tankan Survey was a mixed bag and did not suggest a strong performance for the quarter ahead, Capex projections were weak.

Reportedly, there currently is an overhang of long JPY hedges (vs. the USD and EUR) that will have to be unwound. There have been reports that corporations are over hedged currencies based on overly optimistic foreign revenue projections. This activity is coming just as the fiscal year ends and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. In fact, Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.


COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         20:04
CAD 1.0082 -70 AUD 0.9201 24 Gold 1125 12.40
CNY 6.8273 5 NZD 0.7071 -29 WTI 84.99 1.45

.The risk trades continue to send mixed signals and that is significant. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. After disappointing Australian retail sales data yesterday,  many still feel a rate hike is still on the table for next week  Oil and gold are higher following strong economic data from the U.S. and Europe. Equities are higher. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.




Equities           20:04
NIK 11244 154 DAX 6236 82 DJIA 10905 68
HSI 21537 298 FTSE 5745 65 S&P 1178 5
SSEC 3147 38 SMI 6889 0 NAS 2397 1
ASX 4908 32       TSE 12150 106

Far East equity markets closed mostly higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.84%,  +1bps.
  Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.



UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No key data are due from the Far East on Friday. European markets will be closed. In North America, Canadian markets and most U.S. markets will be closed. Forex markets will trade until after March U.S. employment data are released.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
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