Daily GVI Forex Forex View- SNB-- April Fools Day!
The Daily Forex View
SNB-- April Fools Day!
20:00 GMT- Mar 31 (global-view.com) Today saw the latest set of manufacturing PMI releases and they were mostly very strong in Europe and the U.S. They can be a useful predictor of future economic activity and an interesting comparative study. In Europe and the U.K., the data were surprisingly strong. The Swiss manufacturing PMI surged higher. The Japanese quarterly Tankan survey was mixed at best. The SNB hit N.Y. with a lunchtime surprise.
Friday is near universal holiday. Traders also setting up for U.S. non-farm payrolls and then they are going to leave. After the disappointing ADP jobs report -23,000 decline, street estimates are for a gain of +100 to 200K jobs. Gains are expected to come from the hiring of temporary census workers. Also a bounce from the poor weather in February is expected, although we have noticed that the March weather-related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.
The EURUSD is now trading higher and the EURGBP is up. The GBPUSD is up in line with the weaker USD. The EZ flash manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 56.6 from 56.3 and 54.2 in February. U.K. march CIPS manufacturing PMI was 57.2 vs. 56.6 in February. We still wonder where the EUR goes once short- covering demand has run its course. Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue.
The EURCHF has weakened further today but then surged higher just before lunch in N.Y. The SNB surprised the market as the EURCHF tumbled to new record lows. The central bank intervened not only in the EURCHF cross but in the dollar legs of that relationship as well. They reportedly were active in size as they tried to tell the markets they mean business. That remains to be seen. The Swiss PMI was at a boom level of 65.5 in March vs. 57.4 in February. The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR
The USDJPY pair is higher, while the EURJPY cross is up. The quarterly Bank of Japan Tankan Survey was a mixed bag and did not suggest a strong performance for the quarter ahead, Capex projections were weak.
Reportedly, there currently is an overhang of long JPY hedges (vs. the USD and EUR) that will have to be unwound. There have been reports that corporations are over hedged currencies based on overly optimistic foreign revenue projections. This activity is coming just as the fiscal year ends and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. In fact, Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.
The risk trades continue to send mixed signals and that is significant. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. After disappointing Australian retail sales data yesterday, many still feel a rate hike is still on the table for next week Oil and gold are higher following strong economic data from the U.S. and Europe. Equities are higher. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
Far East equity markets closed mostly higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.84%, +1bps.Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No key data are due from the Far East on Friday. European markets will be closed. In North America, Canadian markets and most U.S.markets will be closed. Forex markets will trade until after March U.S.employment data are released.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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