Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (1 April 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3585
level and was supported around the $1.3460 level. The common currency extended recent gains and
reached its highest level since 19 March as traders continued to cover shorts
that were put on following heightened sovereign credit woes in the eurozone in
the first quarter.Data released in the
eurozone today saw German March PMI improve to 60.2 while EMU-16 PMI improved
to 56.6.Todayâ€™s data are consistent
with other recent economic data that confirm Germany â€“ the eurozoneâ€™s largest
economy â€“ continues to drive economic growth in the bloc.On a negative note, German retail sales fell
0.4% m/m and were off 0.9% y/y.Liquidity is expected to remain quite thin tomorrow and Monday in the
eurozone and the United Kingdom for the Easter and Passover holidays.Traders remain fixated on Greeceâ€™s debt woes
with a new wave of skepticism regarding the countryâ€™s ability to successfully
reduce its fiscal deficits and refinance its maturing debt in the second
quarter.European Central Bank member
Kranjec reported the European Union â€śwonâ€™t do anything specialâ€ť to support
Greece.In U.S. news, March Challenger jobs cuts were off 55.0% y/y and
weekly initial jobless claims fell to 439,000 from the revised print of
445,000.Continuing jobless claims were
narrowly lower at 4.662 million.Other
data released today saw the March ISM manufacturing index improve
more-than-expected to 59.6 from the prior reading of 56.5.Also, the March prices paid index was up
significantly at 75.0 from the prior reading of 67.0.Tomorrowâ€™s March non-farm payrolls data will
cap an abbreviated trading week.Many
economists are calling for job growth around the +185,000 area and upward
revisions to recent monthsâ€™ data but some are questioning how many job gains
could be due to temporary factors such as the U.S. census.U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner warned it
will be some time before large sustainable increases in jobs growth will be
seen.New York Fed President Dudley
reported â€śnear termâ€ť inflation will remain low and said muted U.S. economic
growth will warrant low rates.Euro
bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335 level.
The yen depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ94.05 level and was supported around the ÂĄ93.25
level. As expected, Bank of Japanâ€™s Q1
Tankan survey of corporate sentiment improved q/q with the large manufacturersâ€™
index up to -14 from -24 in Q4 and the non-manufacturerâ€™s index higher at -14
from -22. Also, the large manufacturersâ€™
outlook improve to -8 from -21 in Q4 and Q1 all-industry capital expenditures
improved to -0.4% from -10.8%.Todayâ€™s
improvement represented the Tankanâ€™s highest levels in eighteen months but they
do not necessarily mean Japanâ€™s economy will evidence a marked improvement,
especially as final private demand remains tepid and deflation remains a
significant problem.There is market
chatter that Bank of Japan will lift its assessment of the economy at the BoJ
Policy Board meeting on 6-7 April, possibly on account of greater export
activity.BoJâ€™s 30 April Policy Board
meeting will include its semi-annual economic projections and could be the
meeting when Policy Board members adjust policy further following last monthâ€™s
additional easing steps.There will be
an Upper House election in July and politicians will likely pressure the
central bank to make policy easier far in advance of that election.The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.39% to
close at ÂĄ11,244.40. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ÂĄ94.75 level.The
euro moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ÂĄ127.50 level and was supported around the ÂĄ125.95 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ÂĄ143.60 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ90.00 figure.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8264 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8259. Data released in China overnight
saw March manufacturing PMI improve to 55.1 from 52.0 in February.Peopleâ€™s Bank of China reported yesterday it
will continue its moderately loose monetary policy.
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5295 level and was supported around the $1.5170 level. Bank of England issued its first quarter
credit conditions survey today in which it reported U.K. mortgage demand may
rise in the second quarter.Data
released in the U.K. today saw March PMI manufacturing print at 57.2, up from
the revised prior reading of 56.5.Cable
bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455 level.The euro moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8840
level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8900 figure.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0435 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0610 level. Swiss National Bank is said to have intervened
in the market today by selling Swiss francs in what is estimated to have been a
massive operation.Swiss monetary,
financial, and government officials have been warning that they will not
tolerate a further increase in the franc in recent weeks but many traders
speculated the central bank would not intervene to weaken the franc.Data released in Switzerland today saw the March
PMI manufacturing survey improve to 65.5 from the prior reading of 57.4.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.1180 level. The euro moved higher
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF
1.4410 level while the British pound
moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6215
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