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Thursday April 1, 2010 - 23:25:11 GMT
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Stock Traders Step Out Ahead of Friday’s Jobs Report

Stock traders stepped out ahead of Friday’s U.S. Jobs Report after trading in a tight and narrow range over the past 5 days. Equity markets finished higher even after a few attempts to erase the earlier gains. Investors drove up world stock markets on the prospects of a faster than expected global economic recovery.

 

Thursday’s rally began overnight when China reported better than expected PMI Manufacturing. The move continued following a friendly U.S. Weekly Initial Claims Report. This news drove the June E-mini NASDAQ and June E-mini S&P to new highs for the year. Despite a better than expected U.S. PMI Manufacturing Report, buying dried up and the markets settled into a sideways-to-lower range before mounting a slight recovery into the close.

 

At first glance, the inability to accelerate through the highs for the year is a sign of developing weakness, but one has to remember that thin trading and low volatility ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report may be keeping major market players on the sidelines.

 

June Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes broke as yields rose slightly following the positive initial claims and manufacturing reports. A strong employment report on Friday could send yields through the roof as traders begin to price in the possibility of a rate hike by the Fed led by concerns of a flare-up in inflation.

 

The main trend remains down, but the weakness in the Dollar has put gold in a position to challenge the recent main top at $1133.90. A breakout through this price will turn the main trend to up. Gold will be sensitive to tomorrow’s employment data since it is likely to move the Dollar.

 

Stronger global manufacturing reports drove up demand for June Crude Oil sending this market within striking distance of the high for the year at 85.95. Technically, upside momentum is building following the breakout through the last two main tops at 83.70 and 83.80.

 

The June Canadian Dollar accelerated to the upside on Thursday, after breaking through a minor resistance price at .9849. Greater demand for riskier commodities such as gold and crude oil helped to drive this contract higher. Recent government data suggests the economy is growing, putting the currency on track to reach parity with the U.S. Dollar. Speculators are also factoring in the strong possibility the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates before the Fed. Foreign traders are also finding the Canadian Dollar to be an attractive investment because of the country’s abundance of natural resources and the strength of its banking system.

 

The U.S. Dollar traded lower against most major currencies as traders took advantage of thin market conditions ahead of tomorrow’s key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Early in the session the Dollar rose slightly following a decline in U.S. Weekly Initial Claims before being overcome by aggressive buying of higher yielding assets. Signs that the global economy may be recovering faster than previously thought helped to pressure the Dollar led by strong rallies in the British Pound and Canadian Dollar.

 

Some traders are discounting the rallies this week because of the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday.  They feel that the lack of major players in the market helped contribute to the Dollar’s weakness. Early guesses are for the employment report to show an increase of between 200,000 and 300,000 jobs. Most of which is being attributed to government census hiring. This week’s ADP private employment report showed a surprise decrease of 24,000 jobs versus a guess of +40,000. Economists are saying that there is no correlation between the two reports.

 

The June Euro traded higher one day after the main trend changed to up on the daily chart. Traders chose to ignore potential problems developing in Greece over its ability to finance its debt and instead decided to focus on improvements in the Euro Zone economy. The charts indicate this market is on target to test a resistance cluster at 1.3610 to 1.3620 after regaining a 50% level at 1.3452.

 

The June British Pound surged this morning following a better than expected U.K. manufacturing report and a positive poll showing that the chance of a hung parliament is decreasing. At the close, the British Pound was testing a 50% level at 1.5297. Overtaking this level could trigger an acceleration through the last swing top at 1.5381, turning the main trend to up.

 

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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