Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 April 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3485
level and was capped around the $1.3590 level. Some traders took advantage of very thin
global liquidity to push the U.S. dollar higher following a decent U.S. March
non-farm payrolls report that saw headline non-farm payrolls increase 162,000,
up from an upwardly-revised -14,000 in February.The unemployment rate remained at 9.7% and
this is a positive sign because it means more people are returning to the
labour force seeking full-time employment.There were positive revisions to the payrolls data for the first two
months of the year and average hours worked increased to 34.0 from the revised
prior reading of 33.9.Private jobs
growth registered 123,000 with manufacturing payrolls up 17,000.Average hourly earnings were up
less-than-expected at -0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, signaling workers do not yet
have pricing power with regard to wages.On the whole, todayâ€™s labour report indicates the U.S. economy is on the
mend but jobs growth is likely to remain muted and the â€śjobless recoveryâ€ť is
likely to continue.The dollar also
moved higher on a report that the Federal Reserve will be meeting on Monday to
discuss a possible increase in the discount rate â€“ another sign of monetary
tightening.The greenback is gaining
ground on the premise that U.S. interest rates will normalize at a faster pace
than eurozone interest rates.February
pending home sales data and ISM data will be released on Monday.In
eurozone news, traders await the release of the EMU-16 April Sentix
investor confidence number on Tuesday.Data
released in the eurozone this week saw German March PMI improve to 60.2 while
EMU-16 PMI improved to 56.6.Liquidity
is expected to remain quite thin through Monday in the eurozone and the United
Kingdom for the Easter and Passover holidays.Traders remain fixated on Greeceâ€™s debt woes with a new wave of
skepticism regarding the countryâ€™s ability to successfully reduce its fiscal
deficits and refinance its maturing debt in the second quarter.European Central Bank member Kranjec reported
the European Union â€śwonâ€™t do anything specialâ€ť to support Greece.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335
The yen depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ94.70 level and was supported around the ÂĄ93.65
level. Data released in Japan overnight
saw the March monetary base decrease to +2.1% y/y from +2.2% y/y. Data to be
released on Tuesday include the leading and coefficient indices.As expected, yesterdayâ€™s Bank of Japanâ€™s Q1
Tankan survey of corporate sentiment improved q/q with the large manufacturersâ€™
index up to -14 from -24 in Q4 and the non-manufacturerâ€™s index higher at -14
from -22. Also, the large manufacturersâ€™
outlook improved to -8 from -21 in Q4 and Q1 all-industry capital expenditures
improved to -0.4% from -10.8%.Todayâ€™s
improvement represented the Tankanâ€™s highest levels in eighteen months but they
do not necessarily mean Japanâ€™s economy will evidence a marked improvement,
especially as final private demand remains tepid and deflation remains a
significant problem.There is market
chatter that Bank of Japan will lift its assessment of the economy at the BoJ
Policy Board meeting on 6-7 April, possibly on account of greater export
activity.BoJâ€™s 30 April Policy Board
meeting will include its semi-annual economic projections and could be the
meeting when Policy Board members adjust policy further following last monthâ€™s
additional easing steps.There will be
an Upper House election in July and politicians will likely pressure the
central bank to make policy easier far in advance of that election.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.37% to
close at ÂĄ11,286.09. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ÂĄ94.75 level.The
euro moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ÂĄ127.90 level and was supported around the ÂĄ127.15 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ÂĄ143.95 level while the Swiss
franc moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ88.65 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8257 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8264. Peopleâ€™s Bank of China reported the U.S.
dollar might experience a â€śtechnical reboundâ€ť but said its 2010 appreciation
may not be â€śtoo bigâ€ť on account of the U.S.â€™s high fiscal deficits and low
interest rates.PBoC also warned that
new asset bubbles may be emerging globally.Data released in China yestreday saw March manufacturing PMI improve to
55.1 from 52.0 in February.Peopleâ€™s
Bank of China reported yesterday it will continue its moderately loose monetary
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5180 level and was capped around the $1.5295 level. Sterling liquidity will remain light through
Monday on account of Mondayâ€™s Bank holiday.Bank of England yesterday issued its first quarter credit conditions
survey today in which it reported U.K. mortgage demand may rise in the second
quarter.Data released in the U.K. yesterday
saw March PMI manufacturing print at 57.2, up from the revised prior reading of
56.5.Cable bids are cited around the
US$ 1.4455 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8870 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8895
franc depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0635 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0535 level. Swiss National Bank is said to have intervened
in the market yesterday by selling Swiss francs in what is estimated to have
been a massive operation.Swiss
monetary, financial, and government officials have been warning that they will
not tolerate a further increase in the franc in recent weeks but many traders
speculated the central bank would not intervene to weaken the franc.Data released in Switzerland yesterday saw
the March PMI manufacturing survey improve to 65.5 from the prior reading of
57.4.U.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.1180 level. The euro moved
higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers
around the CHF 1.4350 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6165 level.
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