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Friday April 2, 2010 - 17:04:55 GMT
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FXTimes: Weekly Technical Update 4.2.2010

Weekly Technical Update

Greenback Consolidates; Yen Continues Slide, Commodity Currencies Rally

This week, we saw continuing weakness from the Japanese yen. The greenback, which was gaining last week, consolidated ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll from the US. After the important release, greenback strength returned.

EUR/USD Targets 1.3050

  • Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD extended it correction this week. The 38.2% retracement area could not hold the pair, as it rallied ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm payroll release.
  • The 4H time-frame shows the market in a third bullish attempt, each getting weaker. These bullish attempts topped off at the 61.8% retracement level near 1.36.
  • If the rising trendline breaks, the market can continue to decline.
  • The daily time-frame shows a swing projection to 1.31.

GBP/USD May Target 1.48 in Short-Term
The pair is not ready to decline to the 1.44 yet. In fact the bullish attempt this week shows the market in an intermediate ranging mode, with short-term decline targeting 1.48.

USD/JPY on to 96
The USD/JPY targets 100/101 in the intermediate term, but sees resistance at 96 first after breaking above 94.00.

USD/CAD To Test 38.2% Retracement

  • Daily and 4H: The 1.0060 level held again to end the week, but the decline has been strong and convincing. As it tests the previous support, the RSI bottoms higher, and suggests another rally attempt.
  • The previous high at 1.03, could be the target for the bullish attempt.
  • Staying below 1.03, the market can still decline to 0.9920 area, though the parity level provides support as well.
  • If the market breaks above 1.03, then 1.04, the bullish outlook should be considered, and the decline that broke the 1.02 support could be chalked off as a clear-out action.

EUR/GBP: Testing Support After Retracement
The EUR/GBP pair declined this week, after last week’s rally attempt failed to break 0.9050, the previous pivot high. However, this week, the decline puts the pair in a very important area of 0.8850.

AUD/USD: Remaining in Consolidation

  • Daily and 4H: Last week, the market gave a bearish signal as it broke below 0.91, and completed a head and shoulder.
  • As mentioned then, it is always prudent to wait for a pullback.
  • That came this week, after a failure to break below 0.90. The subsequent rally was not pullback. The bullish attempt was strong and broke declining trendline.
  • In the short-term we may have some bearish attempt following a bearish butterfly.
  • We are in congestion right now (looking back at the daily), and should probably wait for significant breakouts.
  • For example, if the market breaks above 0.9210, and the declining resistance seen in the daily, the rally can target the 0.94 area.

GBP/JPY:  Resistance Tested by Strong Rally

  • Weekly and Daily: The GBP/JPY pair is testing a very important resistance at 144.00. If the market breaks above that, and the declining resistance, an intermediate bullish signal is generated.
  • In the weekly, if that bullish attempt extends further to 2011, a swing projection goes to the 176 area.
  • However, shorter/intermediate term resistance exists at 147.
  • Looking at the daily though, the RSI is nearing overbought zone, and the market decelerated today. However, more significant price data will come at the start of the week. If the market does not break above 144.00 and instead declines, let’s use the 4H time-frame to monitor.


  • 4H: The intraday chart below shows a possible bearish divergence, unless the next week starts with a strong rally. Then the second top in the RSI may not be lower than the first.
  • Essentially, if the market declines, there is some support at the 139/139.50 area. A lower support would be the 200SMA likely to be coincident with the 78.6% retracement area and a rising intermediate term trendline.
  • Look for some more choppy trading next week.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
[email protected]

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses. Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.


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