Monday April 5, 2010 - 04:12:58 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 05-Apr-2010 - 0350 GMT
The US Equities were up for the 5th consecutive week, last week. The Dow (10927.07) was up 0.71% and the Nasdaq (2402.58) was up 0.31%. The Dow may rise further towards the Resistance region of 11000-100 in a couple of weeks. The US Equities are closed today on account of Easter Monday.
The Asian Equities are up today. The Nikkei (11343.28) is up 0.51% and may rise towards 12000 in the coming weeks. China and Hong Kong are closed today on account of Qing Ming. In India, the Sensex (17692.62) was up 0.27% and the Nifty (5290.50) was up 0.16% last week. The Sensex may rise towards 18000-300 in the coming weeks.
Crude (85.60) is retaining its strong upside momentum. The economic recovery hopes and expected increase in demand following the better than expected US jobs data and also the weaker dollar are retaining the prices higher. Though some Resistance is seen at 86, With strong Support at 82.50, there are good chances of a rise to 90 in the coming days.
Gold (1126.20) has risen shaprly and is now trading above the Resistance region 1120-25 mentioned earlier. The weaker dollar supported the price rise. While above 1120 we might see further rise to 1135-40 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen at 1100.
Australia and most of Europe are closed for Easter Monday today. The Euro (1.3525) is looking biddish for the day, targeting 1.3580. Dollar-Yen (94.35) might pause for a few days after its huge rise last week. Resistance seen at 95.00. The Euro-Yen (127.65) continues to look bullish, targeting 129.50.
The Aussie (0.9211) is scraping against Resistance near 0.9230, which might hold for the day, leading to a pullback. The Pound (1.5267) is looking relatively bullish and might be worth buying on dips. Dollar-Swiss (1.0590) has Support at 1.0575-50 following the Swiss National Bank's intervention on Thursday. Chances of rise towards 1.07+.
In Asia, Dollar-Won trades lower near 1126. The USD-SGD (1.3975) has Support at 1.3950 and might move up while the Support holds. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 44.89 on Wednesday last week. The NDFs are trading near the same levels.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.29%. The yields on US Treasuries stregthened further on Friday. The 2Y and 10Y T-yields were up 5 and 7 bps and was last quoted at 1.10% and 3.94% respectively.
The Euro Bund yield is near its 1Y low (on safe haven pretext) and the US T-yield is near the highest since June (as the optimism over speedy recovery grows) which has caused the Bund-Bond Differential to slide and bring the Euro down against the US DOllar. To see the chart of Bund-Bond Differential and the corresponding performance of Euro, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd
No major data release today
12:30 GMT Feb US NFP
...Actual 162K...Previous -14K
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