Stocks are called higher following the U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls report on Friday. At first traders sold the equity markets because the
increase of 162,000 jobs was below the pre-report consensus of 200,000. The
markets turned around after investors realized that the increase in private
sector jobs was better than the guesses.
The strength in the markets today will be determined by
investor confidence in the improving economy.If they believe the jobs picture will continue to improve, then look for
a rally. If traders believe that interest rates are moving up to fast then
gains will be limited.
News that Apple iPad sales were greater than estimated could
help drive up NASDAQ futures. This should spillover to the other indices.
Treasury futures are trading slightly better. This is most
likely because of oversold conditions. The jobs report put pressure on T-Bonds
and T-Notes on Friday. Traders felt this report brought the Fed closer to
hiking interest rates. Yields rose overnight in limited trades.
The mixed Dollar is helping to boost June Gold. Traders in
this market seem to be betting the Dollar will weaken. In addition, equity
investors canâ€™t seem to understand why gold and stocks are both in up trends.
The rise in gold and the rise in Treasury yields may think that inflation is
going to be a major issue soon.
The improving U.S. economy helped boost June
Crude Oil overnight. Last night crude oil broke through the January high at
85.95 to reach a new high for the year. The robust growth in Asian is also
helping to drive up demand for crude oil. Gains could be limited today if the
Dollar strengthens and the Euro weakens.
The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed overnight following
Fridayâ€™s rally. Traders drove the Dollar higher on Friday following the U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The actual report showed an increase in jobs during
March, but the 162,000 jobs created were less than expected. At first the
Dollar weakened, but upon further review, the news that more jobs was created
by the private sector helped turn the Dollar around. Traders are starting to
believe that after being used as a safe haven currency for quite a long time,
the Dollar may start to return to its traditional relationship with the
The strength in the U.S. economy is helping to keep the
pressure on the June Euro which is trading lower overnight. In addition, last
weekâ€™s sell-off in Greek bonds indicates that Euro traders may be losing
confidence in Greeceâ€™s
ability to finance its debt and shore up its finances.
Optimistic traders are helping to underpin the June British
Pound. Trader sentiment seems to be turning a little more positive for the
British Pound after the U.K.â€™s 4Q GDP report showed a greater than expected
improvement and the S&P Corp. left the countryâ€™s credit rating unchanged.
Gains could be hampered by political uncertainty and concerns about the budget
The improving U.S. jobs picture helped pressure
the June Japanese Yen. Traders drove this currency to its lowest level since
August 2009. The strong possibility of an interest rate hike is making the U.S. markets a
more attractive investment for Japanese investors. The Bank of Japan meets on
April 6th. It is expected to keep interest rates low. In addition, officials
may announce another stimulus plan to revive the economy.
The June Swiss Franc is trading flat to lower overnight. The
weaker Euro is helping to weaken this currency versus the U.S. Dollar. The
Swiss Franc has been under pressure since April 1 following reports of a major
intervention by the Swiss National Bank. Continue to look for more intervention
if the Swiss Franc continues to appreciate against the Euro.
Stronger demand for crude oil, firm gold and a bullish stock
market is helping to boost the Canadian Dollar. Overnight the currency strengthened
further, taking out the most recent swing top at .9938. The charts and upside
momentum indicate that this market is well on its way to testing parity with
the U.S. Dollar.
Today, investors will be looking to add to the strength in
the Dollar because of the improving U.S. jobs picture. Gains could be
limited because of light post-holiday volume, however. Traders will be watching
todayâ€™s U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for direction. The consensus is
calling for a 54 number. This means that the economic recovery is broadening
from manufacturing to services. Pending Home Sales is expected to show a drop
The key to todayâ€™s market will be whether global investors
believe the U.S. Jobs Report is a good indication of where the economy is
headed. Some feel that the pace of the growth is still too weak to warrant a
stronger Dollar. Others feel the U.S. economy has turned an
important corner and that the jobs outlook will only get better.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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