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Monday April 5, 2010 - 19:09:52 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Quiet Easter Monday

The Daily Forex View

Quiet Easter Monday

20:00 GMT- Apr 5 ( As expected, USD sentiment developed positively over the day today. Earlier today, we had put a week long time frame on the USD gain. Both the ISM Services PMI and Pending homes sales came in stronger than expected.  The March employment data released last Friday were a key influence. They showed a less strong headline rise in employment than expected (+162K). But the data included a much smaller increase in temporary employment than forecast. Thus it turned out that the underlying data were better than expected. The surge in temporary census hiring will likely hit mostly in April. There is talk of another technical increase in the discount rate in the early part of this week. Another rate hike, even if it is technical, would send another psychological signal about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery.

Easter Monday was a holiday (mostly in Europe).  The U.S. was open, while Canada saw a partial holiday. Full liquidity should return on Tuesday.



CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:54
EUR 1.3472 -12 JPY 127.26 -37 JPY 143.91 13
GBP 1.5235 44 GBP 88.43 -34 CHF 162.02 44
CHF 1.0635 -2 CHF 1.4327 -15 CHF vs.    
JPY 94.46 -19       JPY 88.82 -16


The EURUSD is now trading steady and the EURGBP is down. The GBPUSD is up.  Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue. U.K. polls released over the weekend suggesting a 20 seat majority for the Conservatives have given the GBP a boost.

The EURCHF has weakened  The SNB surprised the market last Thursday when the EURCHF tumbled to new record lows. The central bank intervened not only in the EURCHF cross but in the dollar legs of that relationship as well.  The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR  

The USDJPY pair is lower, while the EURJPY cross is down. Tokyo has been successfully steering the JPY lower recently. Reportedly, there is an overhang of long JPY hedges (vs. the USD and EUR) that have to be unwound. There have been reports that corporations are over hedged currencies based on overly optimistic foreign revenue projections.


COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         9:54
CAD 1.0059 -41 AUD 0.9200 9 Gold 1126 5.80
CNY 6.8259 -6 NZD 0.7039 -17 WTI 85.38 0.51

.The risk trades continue to send mixed signals and that is significant. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. After disappointing Australian retail sales data last week, economists are split on whether a rate hike is still on the table for Tuesday  Oil and gold are higher. Far East equities were higher. Most European bourses were closed. U.S. equities are up. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is still on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level.. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.99%,  +5 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.




Equities           9:54
NIK 11339 53 DAX 6236 0 DJIA 10927 0
HSI 21537 0 FTSE 5745 0 S&P 1178 0
SSEC 3158 11 SMI 6889 0 NAS 2403 0
ASX 4908 0       TSE 12151 0


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  Far East markets on Tuesday will see the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision. Also Japanese leading indicators are due. In Europe, Swiss CPI data are slated. In North America, the U.S. markets will coduct a three year auction, and the weekly API data will be released..

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
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