Better U.S. Economic Outlook Pressures Dollar as Traders Move toward Riskier Assets
The U.S. Dollar opened down and remained lower against most
major Forex markets as traders seemed to reassess Fridayâ€™s employment report
while brushing aside todayâ€™s jump in ISM Non-Manufacturing and the unexpected
surge in pending home sales. Instead of supporting the Dollar because of its
traditional relationship with the economy, investors instead took interest in
stocks and Dollar-denominated commodities.
Some traders blamed the Treasuryâ€™s decision to postpone a
ruling on whether China
manipulates its currency for the weakness in the Dollar. They felt that the
move was designed to defuse political tensions enough for the Chinese
government to allow the Yuan to strengthen.
The Dollar seemed to hold its ground versus the Euro. At the
close the EUR USD finished lower. The strength in the U.S. economy was
enough to weaken the Euro substantially along with the developing lack of
confidence in the Greek financial bailout proposal. Traders may also be
reluctant to take a position in the Euro ahead of Wednesdayâ€™s European Central
Bank meeting. The consensus believes the ECB will leave interest rates
unchanged and hint that rates will remain low until the Euro Zone recovery is sustainable.
The GBP USD closed better, but still had trouble with a key
50% level at 1.5297. Although recent reports have shown that the U.K. economy is
growing, doubt continues to linger about the outcome of the election and the
potential hung parliament that could hamper the countryâ€™s effort to reduce its
The USD CHF traded in a tight range as traders await
direction from the Euro. Traders are leaning a bit to the upside in
anticipation of another intervention by the Swiss National Bank should the Euro
weaken. Trading could be tight until Wednesday when the ECB announces its
monetary policy decision.
Early Sunday night, the USD JPY surged to its highest level
since August 2009.Overbought conditions
and position squaring ahead of Tuesdayâ€™s Bank of Japan meeting helped form a
daily closing price reversal top. This formation could trigger a 50% correction
of the last swing or a two to three day correction.
Stronger gold and crude oil put pressure on the USD CAD.
Strong commodity prices and the outlook for a better economy helped to drive
this pair toward parity. Traders also priced in the strong possibility the Bank
of Canada will raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve. Foreign money
is flowing into the Canadian economy because of the strong natural resource
market and the sound banking system.
The AUD USD closed higher on light volume and low
volatility. Traders are awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australiaâ€™s interest rate decision
on Tuesday. Expectations are for a hike of 25 basis points. 50bp will be
bullish, unchanged will be bearish. If the market gets 25, then the language in
the statement will move the markets. The biggest factor that could influence
this currency over the near-term will be whether China begins to allow the Yuan to
The New Zealand Dollar was under pressure because of last
weekâ€™s International Monetary Fund report calling the currency overvalued.
Traders also fear the high priced currency will hurt export sales and thus the
chance of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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