European Market Update: UK poised to call for general elections; European peripheral concerns resurface
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
European Market Update: UK poised to call for general elections; European peripheral concerns resurface
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (JP) Japan Preliminary Leading Index: 97.9 v 97.8e; Coincident Index: 100.7 v 100.5e - (ID) Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate maintained the Reference rate at 6.50%; as expected - (CZ) Czech Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.1% v -3.5%e - (CZ) Czech Feb Trade Balance (CZK): 15.3B v 15.0Be - (SP) Spain Mar Net Unemployment M/M: 36.0K v 32.0Ke - (NO) Norway Mar PMI: 49. 6 v 50.5e - (SZ) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e - (DE) Denmark Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v -3.2% prior - (TT) Taiwan Mar CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.9%e; WPI Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.2%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Apr Sentix Investor Confidence: +2.5 v -5.2e; first positive reading since Jun 2008 - (UK) Mar PMI Construction: 53.1 v 48.7e - (UK) Q4 BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal: -Â£4.0B v -Â£3.0Be - (SA) South Africa Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 15.0% v 16.2% prior - (DE) Denmark Mar PMI: 54.3 v 54.4 prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets in morning trade have fought to recover lost ground following a 4-day extended weekend. Positive rotation has chased similar gains seen in the US and Asia, pushing markets to new 18-21 month highs. This action has taken place in light of renewed political concerns emanating from Greek debt and the march towards a close election in the UK. Equity strength has been driven by new yearly highs in a range of commodities, basic resources and base metals that have sent the miners, drillers and heavy manufacturers higher once again. Specific equity news included the on-going saga of an expected JV/asset swap between Daimler [DAI.GE] and Renault [RNO.FR], the completion of a Petrofac [PFC.UK]/Lundin petro [LUN.SW] IPO spin off. Following US March auto sales figures last Thursday, German auto's moved higher on continued y/y improvement. Trading in Europe has been choppy and volatile with markets quickly surrendering opening highs, only to rebound and push higher on supportive PMI data. Trading volumes into the new week remain depressed and below moving averages.
- Individual equities: Petrofac [PFC.UK]: EnQuest PLC - Demergers Effective and Trading Expected to Begin [ENQ.UK]. || Allied Irish Bank [ALBK.IR]: Seeking to accelerate asset divestments through summer 2010 -Times. || Irish Life and Permanent [IPM.IR]: Considering acquisition of Irish Nationwide Building Society - Telegraph. || Novolipetsk [NLMK.RU]: Reports Q4 Net $294M v $164M y/y, Rev $1.82B v $1.74B y/y: confirms FY09 sales output at 10.6M tonnes, +1% y/y. ||
- Speaker: China Foreign Min reiterated view that Yuan currency appreciation is not the cause or solution to rebalancing US-China trade. It pledged to continue to push forward reform of Yuan regime. The ministry denied charges that China manipulates the Yuan currency for its trade advantage. It added that China never engaged in manipulation to gain a trade advantage and denied its label as a "currency manipulator". ***China Govt Economist stated that a widening of yuan trading band was possible and could return to modest yuan appreciation policy** Reportedly a senior Greece Official stated that there was no major push to get IMF out of the aid picture but did conceded that Greece sought more 'clarity' on IMF package. He added that he did not believe Greek aid could be withdrawnBut snubbing IMF would show inconsistency*** Russian Fin Min Kudrin commented that the Russian Central Bank (CBR) might pause in its rate cutting cycle due to inflation risk. Kudrin added cutting interest rates remained most important economic priority ***US Tsy Sec Geithner commented during his visit to Asia that US and India retained a strong mutual interest in a global recovery. He noted that the US was in the process of restoring its fiscal sustainability and that US borrowing needs have declined globally. Both countries would continue discussion regarding financial sector reform, expanding capital market investments. India must work for liberalizing its financial institutions, opening trade *** Fitch commented on the Portuguese banking sector and stated that major Portuguese Banks to maintain profitability despite high funding costs *** Japan's Vice Min Furukawa commented that some Gov Panel Members sought to cut the country's debt/GDP ratio as part of fiscal responsibility targets. ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The Euro was softer in the session as the European peripheral concerns returned from holiday. The Greek tragedy came back into focus after Greece reportedly sought to amend agreement with EU in order to bypass IMF contribution due to concerns of social unrest because of tough IMF conditions. Other talk centered on speculation that Germany sought higher interest rates on emergency loan aid. Press reports that an IMF delegation was to arrive in Greece on Wed to provide technical assistance and review the country's finances. The spread on the 10-year Greek/Bund bonds rose to 5-week highs above the 355bps area. EUR/USD approaching the 1.3400 area. ***The GBP was softer as chatter circulated that Prime Minister Brown was expected to announce today that the general election will be held on May 6th. GBP/USD lower by 120 pips from the Tokyo open to test 1.5150 area. ***The USD/JPY retraced from its recent 7-month highs to move back below the 93.80 area in European trading. The soft tone in Euro and GBP pairs feeding into JPY strength for the session.
- Geo-political: UK PM Gordon Brown will formally request the dissolution of Parliament by the Queen today, formally kicking off election season. The general election will then be held on Thursday May, 6 2010 (expected). The request comes on the heels of further polling data that shows Labour continuing to cut into the Conservatives margin.***The US consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan came under a sustained Taliban attack that included suicide bombings, rocket and automatic weapons fire. The attack killed 5 security personnel but the militants were not capable of penetrating the buildings defenses.
***Notes/Observations: - Prime Minister Brown is expected to announce today that the general election will be held on May 6 - Fresh concerns on Greece as speculation surfaces that it sought amend its agreement with EU in order to bypass IMF contribution - Chinese officials continue to double talk on the Yuan currency issue - LME copper moved above the $8,000 level for the first time since Lehman Brother's bankruptcy (Sept 2008)
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia Mar Official reserve Assets: $444.8Be v $436.2B prior - (PO) Portugal Feb Industrial Sales M/M: % v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: % v 10.5% prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC weekly chain store sales - 8:55 (US) Redbook weekly chain store sales - 9:00 (BZ) Brazil Feb CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.0%e v 81.4% prior - 9:30 US Tsy Sec Geithner in India - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Consumer Confidence: 82.0e v 80.6 prior - 13:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota - 14:00 (US) FOMC minutes
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.