Greek Financial Problems Pressuring European Currencies
The Euro has been under pressure since late last week when
it failed to attract strong buying after the main trend turned to up. The
overnight weakness has pierced the last swing bottom at 1.3384, turning the
main trend back down. Downside pressure could build if this market takes out
two key retracement levels at 1.3402 and 1.3370. Look for this market to
continue to feel downside pressure if the spread between Greek and German debt
continues to widen.
The Dollar is trading sharply higher against the European
currencies following reports of problems with the Greek bailout package. Both
the June Euro and June British Pound are trading sharply lower as Greece tries
to amend the proposal to receive aid from the International Monetary Fund and
to negotiate better interest rates on loans from other European Union members.
Traders have been nervous since last week when Greek bonds
began selling off and the cost to service its debt surged. Although the first
bond issue was well received, it now appears that this may have been a token
gesture by Euro Zone members. Since this initial offering, interest rates have
slowing risen, making it very expensive to Greece to continue to function.
After three attempts to break out through a major 50% level
at 1.5297, the British Pound finally succumbed to selling pressure overnight
and now appears to be on a path to retrace to at least 1.5058 before attracting
potential buyers.The main trend remains
down, but it is possible that the British Pound is building a huge support base
before its next rally. The recent release of the 4Q GDP results show that the
economy is improving, but concerns continue to linger regarding the U.K.â€™s
exposure to the Greek fiscal problems as well as political uncertainty.
The Dollar/Swiss is rallying due to the weaker Euro.
Technically, the charts indicate that the trend will turn up on a move through
1.0751. A penetration of this price will be an indication that the situation in
Europe is actually worsening. This could
prompt additional selling pressure because of the threat of an intervention by
the Swiss National Bank.
The Dollar/Yen is trading lower following Mondayâ€™s closing
price reversal top. Japanese investors may begin bringing funds home because of
risk aversion. A weaker stock market could trigger a surge in the Japanese Yen
today. The chart pattern suggests the start of a 2 to 3 day break or a 50%
correction back to 92.26. The latter scenario will likely take place if there
is a huge sell-off in U.S.
The strong Canadian economy and banking system continues to
attract global investors into the Canadian Dollar. Firm crude oil and gold are
helping to weaken the Dollar/CAD today. These are strong signs of demand for
resources which should help the economy continue to grow. The charts indicate
that although parity with the U.S. Dollar is the first objective of this move,
downside momentum may not stop at this level.
The AUD USD is trading higher. Early this morning, the Reserve
Bank of Australia
raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25. This action came
as no surprise but hawkish comments following the rate hike triggered a surge
to the upside. In its policy statement, RBA Governor Stevens said further hikes
are likely despite fears that they will erode consumer spending.
The main trend turned down in the NZD USD overnight. Last
weekâ€™s IMF report calling the currency overpriced has been putting pressure on
this market for almost a week. Traders are concerned that the high price New Zealand
currency will hurt the export market and keep the economy from growing.
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