Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (6 April 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3355
level and was capped around the $1.3495 level. The common currency fell significantly on new
concerns about Greece‚Äôs fiscal condition.A report suggested Greece may try to bypass the International Monetary
Fund‚Äôs involvement in financial assistance to the country because the
conditions may be too tight.Greek
finance minister Papaconstantinou denied the report and said the country has
never sought to exclude the IMF from the rescue package.Greece needs to borrow about ‚ā¨42 billion in
2010 and this may include as much as US$ 10 billion in U.S. dollar bonds.IMF officials are expected to meet with Greek
officials again this week.In another
report, there is talk that Greek investors and corporations are moving assets outside
of Greece for asset protection purposes.This is the latest chapter in the Greek saga and it is likely not the
last.Some dealers have suggested Greece‚Äôs
woes are analogous to AIG‚Äôs and have compared the situations involving Portugal
and Spain to Lehman‚Äôs troubles, in reference to the U.S. investment banking
giant that was not bailed out.Data
released in the eurozone today saw the April Sentix investor confidence index
print at +2.5, up from the prior reading of -7.2. EMU-16 March PMI data will be released
tomorrow.In U.S. news, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee‚Äôs
March meeting were released today and they reported ‚ÄúWhile recent data pointed
to a noticeable pickup in the pace of consumer spending during the first
quarter, participants agreed that household spending going forward was likely
to remain constrained by weak labor market conditions, lower housing wealth,
tight credit, and modest income growth.‚ÄĚThe minutes also revealed ‚ÄúParticipants saw recent inflation readings as
suggesting a slightly greater deceleration in consumer prices than had been
expected. A number of participants observed that moderation in price changes
was widespread across many categories of spending.‚ÄĚ Most dealers believe the
Fed will wait to raise its benchmark federal funds target rate for several
months because they want to see if consumer prices are more inflationary or
deflationary and they will want to see ongoing improvements in the U.S. labour
market.It was reported on Friday that
March non-farm payrolls expanded at their highest rate in three years.
Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota today said he supports the gradual sale
of mortgage-backed securities. The Fed last week ended a massive US$ 1.25
trillion MBS-buying program that provided liquidity to the financial
system.Euro bids are cited
around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•93.65 level and was capped around the ¬•94.35
level. Finance Minister Kan reported Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa is ‚Äúdoing
a very good job.‚ÄĚFinancial services
minister Kamei reported the government will need to enact additional fiscal measures
to stop the strong deflationary pressures that are evident.Japan‚Äôs ability to implement additional
budgetary stimuli is rather limited given the massive amount of outstanding
Japanese government bonds. Data released in Japan today saw the February
coincident index improve to 100.7 from 100.3 while the February leading
economic index improved to 97.9 from 96.7.The central bank may increase its assessment of the Japanese economy on
account of an improvement in the export sector and the recent improvement in
the Tankan survey of corporate sentiment.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.50% to close at ¬•11,282.32. U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis
the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¬•125.35 level and was capped
around the ¬•127.35 level.The British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¬•142.05 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested bids around the ¬•87.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar was unchanged vis-√†-vis the
Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8257 in the over-the-counter
market. The big news involving China continues
to be that the Obama administration is delaying the release of a report due 15
April that could have potentially labeled China a currency manipulator.The move to delay the release of the report
could signal negotiations are ongoing between the two countries or could signal
China may let the yuan appreciate further in the coming days.Chinese leadership will visit Washington,
D.C. on 12-13 April.It was reported
today that China‚Äôs net foreign debt totaled US$ 428.6 billion at the end of
2009, up 14% y/y.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5125 level and was supported around the $1.5305 level. Cable
spun lower after Prime Minister Brown called for a general election on 6 May
and Parliament was dissolved.The consensus
is that the election could end in a hung Parliament even if challenger Cameron
of the Tory party unseats the unpopular Brown.Data released in the U.K. today saw March construction PMI improve to
53.1 from 48.5 in February.Cable bids
are cited around the US$ 1.4455 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8765 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.8860 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0720 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0610 level. Data
released in Switzerland today saw March consumer price inflation up 0.1% m/m
and 1.4% y/y.Swiss National Bank is
said to have intervened in the market last week by selling Swiss francs in what
is estimated to have been a massive operation.Swiss monetary, financial, and government officials have been warning
that they will not tolerate a further increase in the franc in recent weeks but
many traders speculated the central bank would not intervene to weaken the
franc on account of growth in the Swiss economy.While forecasts for economic growth and
inflation have both been upwardly revised in recent weeks, SNB‚Äôs latest probable
intervention underscores their commitment to preserving an export-driven
recovery.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0920 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4315 level while the British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.6335 level.
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