Pressure could be on Higher Risk Assets as Greece Problems Resurface
The Dollar Index is trading sharply higher as the Dollar is
gaining against the European currencies following reports of problems with the
Greek bailout package. Both the June Euro and June British Pound are trading
sharply lower as Greece tries to amend the proposal to receive aid from the
International Monetary Fund and to negotiate better interest rates on loans
from other European Union members.
Traders have been nervous since last week when Greek bonds
began selling off and the cost to service its debt surged. Although the first
bond issue was well received, it now appears that this may have been a token
gesture by Euro Zone members. Since this initial offering, interest rates have
slowing risen, making it very expensive to Greece to continue to function.
stock indices are trading lower because of risk aversion. For several days,
stock indices have been buoyed by good economic news, but the rallies have
appeared to be labored at times. Traders looked a little tentative at times
seemingly expecting a correction because of extremely overbought indicators. So
far the weakness hasnâ€™t led to any major selling pressure, but conditions are
ripe for the situation to escalate should the Greek fiscal problems balloon.
Traders have gotten used to buying dips in this rally so
this morningâ€™s opening may be treated by some as a buying opportunity. Looking
at the charts, the Dow is still toying with the 11,000 area. Technically, this
price doesnâ€™t mean anything. Psychologically, breaking out above this level
could trigger an acceleration to the upside as traders gain more confidence
that equities are still the place to invest.
June Treasury Bonds are trading better. Weaker demand for
higher risk assets and oversold conditions are helping to boost demand for
safer assets. Money may be moving out of higher risk commodities and equities
and into the safety of the fixed income market. In addition, following a string
of bullish U.S.
economic reports, yields have become very attractive, making T-Bond and T-Notes
more competitive with the yields offered by equities.
June Gold is trading slightly lower. Traders are not selling
gold very aggressively despite the stronger Dollar. This could be because of
concerns about a possible default in Greece. Overnight, June Gold
overtook a swing top at $1133.90, only to find resistance at a 50% price level
at $1136.75. The key factor to watch today is whether downside pressure on the
British Pound and Euro extends throughout the U.S. Forex session. If these two
currencies continue to collapse, then eventually gold may feel downside
pressure. There may be a point, however, where gold surges to the upside if it
becomes clear that the Greek fiscal issues are worsening enough to spread
across the Euro Zone. This will then lead to renewed talk of a collapse in the
Despite the stronger Dollar and weaker Euro, June Crude Oil
continues to rally. It looks as if demand for crude oil because of the
expanding global economy is a more important reason to be long this market.
Technically, this market broke out to the upside on Monday. This matter is
expected to continue as long as there is a bid under the market. A further
collapse in the Euro and surge in the Dollar could give traders an excuse to
take profits after this rally and to lighten up a little on their long
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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