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Wednesday April 7, 2010 - 10:09:05 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Digesting a Lot

The Daily Forex View

Digesting a Lot

10:00 GMT- Apr 7 ( Forex markets are digesting the slew of items released over the past few days after the Easter break. News highlights today have been the outcome of the Bank of Japan policy meeting (rates unchanged) and Services PMIs from Europe (flash estimate revised higher) and U.K. 9weaker than expected. Highlights from the U.S. today will be the outcome of the 10-yr bond auction and a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke. The EURUSD yesterday had been weighed down by a report on the Greek sovereign debt front which has not seen any follow through today. As noted yesterday, USD sentiment has already been developing positively, but that improved sentiment could be slowing today. 

As for the FOMC minutes were released yesterday it seemed the central bank is starting to extricate itself from the extended period language straight-jacket. Such would be sensible if they are considering hiking rates in September or in 4Q10. We do not read much more in the notes.  


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:59
EUR 1.3381 -23 JPY 125.79 24 JPY 142.81 -28
GBP 1.5191 -85 GBP 88.09 34 CHF 162.51 -65
CHF 1.0698 17 CHF 1.4315 -2 CHF vs.    
JPY 94.01 34       JPY 87.88 18

The EURUSD is steady and the EURGBP is up. The GBPUSD has fallen after a weaker than expected U.K. March Services PMl. The Eurozone March flash Services PMI was revised higher. In the U.K., yesterday PM Gordon Brown formally called for a general election on May 6. Polls have been mixed. For the next month, the GBP will be vulnerable to the next headline.

The EURCHF is steady. The SNB surprised the market last Thursday after the EURCHF tumbled to new record lows. The central bank intervened not only in the EURCHF cross but in the dollar legs of that relationship as well.  The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is modestly higher, and the EURJPY cross is better.  BOJ Governor Shirakawa said the economy has been picking up after its meeting today. Nevertheless, its focus remains on combating deflation. There remains persistent talk that much JPY are in the wings ready to be sold for various technical reasons.

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         9:59
CAD 0.9989 -22 AUD 0.9263 -21 Gold 1134 -0.80
CNY 6.8261 1 NZD 0.7049 -15 WTI 86.59 -0.19

.The risk trades continue to send mixed signals. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. Comments by Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty late Tuesday suggested not too much concern about the strength of the currency. A major focus of his comments was the orderliness of the move. A stronger currency takes the pressure off the central bank to tighten policy.  Oil and gold are lower. 

Far East equities were higher. European bourses are mixed. U.S. equities are down. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.94%, -2 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.



Equities           9:59
NIK 11293 11 DAX 6255 3 DJIA 10970 2
HSI 21929 392 FTSE 5776 -4 S&P 1189 5
SSEC 3148 -11 SMI 6863 0 NAS 2437 0
ASX 4961 7       TSE 12157 9


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America , the Canadian Ivey PMI is due.  U.S. releases weekly mortgage statistics, weekly crude and will hold a 10-yr auction. Bernanke is slated to speak as well.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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