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Wednesday April 7, 2010 - 13:47:34 GMT
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Stocks Called Lower on Reduced Demand for Higher Risk Assets

U.S. equity markets are called lower this morning due an overnight decline in demand for higher risk assets.  Overbought conditions are also contributing to the weakness. The bulk of the selling pressure could be coming from commodity-linked stocks due to lower raw material prices. Speculation that China may raise interest rates during the second quarter is leading traders to believe that yields will rise in the U.S. sooner than expected. This is creating competition between stocks and fixed income instruments for investor funds.


The inability of the Dow to penetrate 11,000 is also weighing on the markets. On Tuesday, a divergence was created between the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow. The broader-based indices made new highs for the year while the Dow lagged. Traders may try to drive the indices lower to create value which could attract fresh money.


Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes are trading higher. Increased demand is coming from investors lightening up stock positions. Traders may also be expected good results from today’s 10-year Note auction. Technically, oversold conditions are contributing to the firm overnight trade.


The stronger Dollar is helping to limit gains in June Gold, but fear of a collapse of the Greek economy is helping to boost demand for hard assets. This is helping to keep a bullish undertone in the market.


June Crude Oil is falling on reduced demand for risky assets and a stronger Dollar. Traders are also lightening up ahead of today’s EIA supply/demand report. Traders are approaching today’s report with caution due to last night’s monthly report which showed a reduction in demand.


The U.S. Dollar is trading higher overnight as Greek financial concerns drive the Euro lower, poor economic news weakens the British Pound and demand for commodity-linked currencies fall as China may raise rates during the second quarter.


The main trend on the daily chart turned down in the June Euro on Tuesday when the market crossed the last swing bottom at 1.3384 and to the bearside of a minor retracement zone at 1.3402 to 1.3370. 


Overnight a European Union report showed that fourth quarter gross domestic product in the Euro area fell to 0.0% versus an earlier estimate of 0.1%.  This could be the effect of the financial turmoil caused by Greece. Although these results were expected, traders continued to pressure the Euro as conditions regarding Greece have not changed enough to warrant a better outlook for the first quarter GDP. Losses may have been limited by an increase in Euro Zone Final Services PMI and a higher PMI Composite figure.


The drop in 4Q GDP is leading analysts to believe the European Central Bank will leave interest rates unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting.


The June British Pound is under pressure this morning as U.K. services industries expanded less than forecast. These poor results are likely to keep downward pressure on interest rates when the Bank of England meets tomorrow. In addition, traders should watch for the possibility of an expansion of its quantitative easing program. U.K. PMI fell 56.5 from 58.4. A reading of 58 was expected. The Index of Services Data grew only 0.6% versus a forecast of 0.8%. The unexpected drop in both of these reports reduced the bullish impact of the recent better than expected 4Q GDP report.


Finally, talk is circulating that China may raise interest rates during the second quarter. This may hurt demand for commodities and raw materials. The commodity-linked Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are down overnight as traders lighten up long positions.









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