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Thursday April 8, 2010 - 10:06:03 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- EUR in the Cross Hairs

The Daily Forex View


EUR in the Cross Hairs

10:00 GMT- Apr 8 (global-view.com) The EUR is bearing the brunt of renewed Greek concerns. It appears that Germany may be pursuing a harder line than generally thought on Greece. Greek CDS (Credit Default Swaps) have shot out today to about 440bp from 405bp on the open. The  most significant fx move has been in the EURJPY cross, where the EUR has lost major ground. Some are pointing to the sharp decline in the U.S. advantage vs Japan in the two-yr note this week as undermining the USDJPY. See chart in  link below.

The key focus early will be on the outcome of the BOE and ECB meetings. Both are expected to keep policy changes on hold for a good while. U.S. weekly jobless claims on the U.S. open will be closely followed as well. There is also more talk about an imminent CNY revaluation vs. the USD following a NYT article today. The expected rate change would likely be minor (+2.5%). 

FOREX

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:58
EUR 1.3312 -42 JPY 123.62 -100 JPY 141.38 -91
GBP 1.5225 -22 GBP 87.44 -15 CHF 163.81 21
CHF 1.0759 29 CHF 1.4322 -6 CHF vs.    
JPY 92.86 -46       JPY 86.31 -66

The EURUSD is weaker and the EURGBP is steady. The GBPUSD is lower on a generally better USD tone vs. Europe. The ECB is unlikely to change policies today. Furthermore, any policy pronouncements must take into account the unstable situation in Greece. The BOE is unlikely to make waves with a general election underway. In the U.K., the general election set for May 6 has the markets reacting to each new headline. This will go on for another month. Polls have been mixed, but most favor the Tories. We continue to have a fundamentally bearish bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD. EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is steady. The SNB may have been in the markets this week. The central bank intervened noisily last Thursday in the EURCHF cross and in USDCHF.  The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is lower, and the EURJPY cross is down sharply. Key Japanese core machinery orders were much weaker than expected (-5.1%) but have had no impact. Some traders have been focused intently on the Japanese vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread. There remains persistent talk that there is a lot of yen waiting in the wings ready to be sold. We remain bullish USDJPY, but EURJPY is a tough call.

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

  

Commodity         9:58
CAD 1.0076 27 AUD 0.9242 -36 Gold 1146 -2.80
CNY 6.8249 -15 NZD 0.7025 -52 WTI 85.45 -0.16

.The risk trades continue to send mixed signals. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are weaker. Comments by Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty Tuesday suggested little concern about the strength of the currency. A major focus of his comments was the orderliness of the move. A stronger currency takes the pressure off the central bank to tighten policy. Oil and gold are weaker. We continue to favor the AUD and CAD from a fundamental perspective. The NZD is looking vulnerable.  

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are soft. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.87%, +1 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:06
NIK 11293 11 DAX 6222 -30 DJIA 10887 -81
HSI 21929 392 FTSE 5762 -18 S&P 1180 -5
SSEC 3148 -11 SMI 6843 0 NAS 2428 -8
ASX 4961 7       TSE 12078 -70

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  Monetary policy decisions are due from the Bank of England and European Central Bank. In North America, the U.S. releases weekly jobless statistics, weekly natural gas inventories and will hold a 30-yr auction.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


 

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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