The U.S. Dollar is trading better against the Euro and
British Pound as Forex traders await todayâ€™s European Central Bank and Bank of
England Policy statements. The Dollar is also gaining against the
commodity-linked currencies, helped by lower gold and crude oil. Weaker equity
markets are putting additional pressure on higher risk currencies while
underpinning the lower yielding Japanese Yen.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner is in Beijing this morning to discuss the Chinese
currency and other economic issues. The visit by Geithner is a good sign that China is open
to the idea of letting its currency rise against the Dollar.
The EUR USD is trading lower overnight. Pressure continues
to mount on this currency because of growing concerns that Greece will
default on its debt. The spread between Greek Bonds and German Bunds is
widening, making it difficult for Greece to finance its debt.
News that German Industrial Production was unexpectedly flat
in February is also helping to pressure this currency. A surprise drop in Euro
Zone Retail Sales has solidified the thought that the European Central Bank
will leave interest rates unchanged this morning. Based on the worsening Greek
situation and the poor economy, some traders now believe the ECB will leave
interest rates at historically low levels until early 2011. Investors will be
watching ECB President Trichetâ€™s comments this morning to see if he has
anything new to say about Greece.
Some traders expect him to reassure investors that the situation is under
control and that nothing unexpected is developing.
Technically, this market is getting dangerously close to the
recent main bottom at 1.3267. If todayâ€™s ECB policy statement takes on a more
dovish tone than expected, then look for selling pressure to drive this market
to a new low for the year.
Traders were pleasantly surprised overnight on the news that
U.K. Industrial Production was higher than expected. The report showed an
increase of 1% versus a pre-report estimate of 0.5%. The British Pound rallied
on the news, but not enough to change the trend to up. Technically, this market
will remain in a downtrend until the last swing top at 1.5381 is violated. This
market is also having trouble piercing a 50% retracement level at 1.5297.
Additional resistance comes in at a downtrending Gann angle at 1.5317.
This morning, the Bank of England is expected to leave
interest rates unchanged at historically low levels. Despite some improvements
in the economy since the last meeting in March, donâ€™t be surprised if the BoE
announces an expansion or an extension of its current quantitative easing
program to give the economy an additional boost. The policy statement by the
BoE may also address the widening budget deficit and its threat to the economic
Overnight, the USD CHF turned the main trend to up on the
daily chart after breaking the last main swing top at 1.0751. In addition, this
currency pair crossed to the bull side of a downtrending Gann angle and a major
retracement zone at 1.0703 to 1.0749. The weaker Euro is increasing the
possibility of an intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
The weaker U.S.
equity markets are helping to encourage Japanese investors to seek protection
against a substantial sell-off. This repatriation of funds is putting pressure
on the USD JPY.
Technically, this market is weakening because of the closing
price reversal pattern from earlier in the week. Based on the short-term range
of 89.76 to 94.77, the current downside momentum and chart formation indicates
a test of 92.26 is likely over the near-term.
Fundamentally, weaker gold and crude oil is helping to
trigger a short-covering rally in the USD CAD. Technically, Wednesdayâ€™s closing
price reversal bottom was confirmed overnight. This pattern suggests a minimum
2 to 3 day rally or a 50% retracement to 1.0138.
The lack of demand for higher risk commodities and equities
is helping to pressure the AUD USD. Upside momentum has slowed since the
Reserve Bank of Australia
raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% earlier in the
week. Technically, Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal top was confirmed
overnight. Although a change in trend is not likely at this time, the reversal
pattern suggests a 2 to 3 day correction is likely with a test of .9149
possible over the near-term.
The New Zealand Dollar resumed its downtrend overnight
following a quick two-day rally. Earlier in the week, the main trend turned
down on the daily chart but a short-covering rally stopped the slide after this
currency tested a 50% level at .6986. Expectations are that weaker commodity
and equity prices will drive this market through the recent main bottom at
.6903 to the .618 level at .6942.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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