The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3365
level and was supported around the $1.3280 level. As expected, the European Central Bank did not
announce a change to its monetary policy today and European Central Bank
President Trichet reiterated views he has made in recent policy
statements.The big news in the eurozone
remains the worsening situation in Greece.There are reports that western banks have pulled their repo lines with
Greek banks, reducing the ability of Greek banks to secure funding in the
international capital markets.Trichet
today said the Greek situation is not even an â€śissueâ€ť but added responsbilities
must be undertaken to contend with the problem.The capital markets might disagree with Trichetâ€™s assessment of Greeceâ€™s
worsening problems, however, as Greek assets depreciated significantly
today.Spreads on five-year Greek credit
default swap spreads blew out by 55bps during the European session and Greek
cash bonds also moved lower with yields on 10-year Greek bonds reaching 7.5%
today â€“ their highest level since the advent of the euro.European Union finance ministers will convene
in Madrid on 16-18 April and G20 officials convene 22 April ahead of the annual
IMF and World Bank meetings on 24-25 April.The most pressing test for Greece will come on 19 May when some â‚¬8.1
billion in debt comes due.It is
estimated that at least two syndications would be required to refinance the
maturing debt and there is growing concern that investors may have insufficient
appetite for more Greek paper, even at higher yields.Credit default swap spreads on other heavily-indebted
countries including Spain and Portugal also widened.The ECB also announced a more liberal
collateral eligibility policy that is partially designed to assure that Greek
debt can be utilized in repo transactions into 2011.Data released in the eurozone today saw
February retail sales off 0.6% m/m and off 1.1% y/y.In
U.S. news, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota reported the Fed needs to
retain supervisory powers and said â€śbanks with large amounts of commercial real
estate risk-exposure face a correspondingly elevated risk of failure.This threat could well lead to continued
declines in bank lending, which could curtail the recovery.â€ť Federal Reserve
Governor Tarullo said the need to low rates will not â€śdiminish soon,â€ť reiterating
dovish comments made by Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday.Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly
initial jobless claims climb to 460,000 from a revised 442,000 while continuing
jobless claims fell to 4.550 million from 4.681 million. Also, March ISCS chain
store sales were up a significant 9.0% y/y.February wholesale inventories data will be released tomorrow.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ92.85
level and was capped around the ÂĄ93.40 level. Bank of Japan maintained its assessment of the
economy overnight, reporting â€śJapanâ€™s economy has been picking up mainly due to
improvement in overseas economic conditions and to various policy measures.â€ťBoJ reiterated the economy still lacks â€śmomentum
to support a self-sustained recovery in domestic private demand.â€ťNikkei reported BoJ Governor Shirakawa
and Prime Minister Hatoyama will meet regularly to discuss the economy.The central bank also reported corporate
sentiment is improving, capital spending is leveling out, and the deceleration
in consumer prices will moderate.Data
released in Japan overnight saw the February current account total print at ÂĄ
1.47 trillion while February machine orders were off 5.4% m/m and 7.1%
y/y.Also, March bankruptcies were off
14.5% y/y and March machine tool orders were up 262.1% y/y.Additionally, the March economy watchersâ€™ survey
improved at the both the current and outlook levels.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.10% to
close at ÂĄ11,168.20.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ÂĄ96.85 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen
as the single currency tested bids around the ÂĄ123.40 level and was capped around
the ÂĄ124.60 level.The British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids
around the ÂĄ140.95 level while the Swiss
franc moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested bids around the ÂĄ86.15 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8243 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8255. The move higher in the yuan was expected by
most dealers as simmering tensions between the U.S. and China have thawed a
little bit in the run-up to next weekâ€™s meeting in Washington, D.C. between
leadership from the two countries.Treasury
Secretary Geithner met with Chinese leadership in Beijing today to stress the importance
of bilateral relations.Peopleâ€™s Bank of
China sold about CNY 15 billion in three-year bills today, its first sale since
June 2008 and the central bankâ€™s latest attempt to drain liquidity and manage
money supply growth.There is a growing
sense that China is close to announcing an important shift in its currency
policy, possibly including a further liberalization of the yuanâ€™s exchange
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5275 level and was supported around the $1.5140 level. Many data were released in the U.K. today.
First, March Halifax house prices were up 1.1% m/m and 5.2% y/y for the most
recent three-month period.Second,
February industrial production was up 1.0% m/m and off 0.1% y/y.Third, February manufacturing production was
up 1.3% m/m and 1.4% y/y.Fourth, the
March NIESR GDP estimate came in at +0.4%, unchanged from the revised prior
reading.As expected, Bank of Englandâ€™s
Monetary Policy Committee kept its main Bank rate unchanged at 0.50% and kept
its asset purchase program unchanged at ÂŁ200 billion.Bank for International Settlements today
issued a stern warning about the size of U.K. sovereign debt.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455
level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8735 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8780
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0715 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0785 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
March unemployment rate decline to 4.2% from 4.4% in February.Swiss National Bankâ€™s 2009 Annual Report was
released today in which the central bank indicated it expects GDP growth around
1% this year, down from the prior forecast of 1.5%.Swiss National Bank is thought to have
intervened again yesterday by selling the franc but this will remain
unconfirmed and is far from certain because while the pair appreciated quickly,
it did not appreciate by more than 35 pips.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level.The
euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.4320 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6395 level.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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