European Market Update: UK PPI data surges in March; Greek Q1 budget deficit data aids global risk appetite
Friday, April 09, 2010
European Market Update: UK PPI data surges in March; Greek Q1 budget deficit data aids global risk appetite
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (GE) Germany Feb Current Account: â‚¬9.1B v â‚¬7.0Be; Trade Balance: â‚¬12.6B v â‚¬114Be; Imports M/M: 0.2% v -2.3%e; Exports M/M: 5.1% v 4.0%e - (FI) Finland Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v 1.6%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 1.3%e - (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -â‚¬40M v -â‚¬52M prior - (FR) Bank of France Mar Business Sentiment: 103 v 104e - (FR) France Feb Industrial Production M/M: % v -0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 4.0%e - (FR) France Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 4.5%e - (CZ) Czech Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e - (CZ) Czech Feb Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -23.6% v -25.6% prior - (CZ) Czech Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.9%e - (DE) Denmark Feb Current Account (DKK): 2.6B v -0.2B prior; Trade Balance (ex Shipping): 5.0B v 4.5B prior - (DE) Denmark Feb Industrial Production M/M: 2.5% v 3.7% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -6.3% v -6.8% prior - (SW) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): 4.4B v 43.9B prior - 3:30 (SW) Sweden Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6% prior - 3:30 (SW) Sweden Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -0.9% v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: 12.5% v 3.9% prior - (NV) Netherlands Feb Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v 6.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.3% v 5.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 10.9% v 7.3% prior - (NO) Norway Mar CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e - (NO) Norway Mar CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9%e - (NO) Norway Mar Producer prices (incl oil) M/M: 2.3% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 21.7% v 18.8% prior - (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Manufacturing M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v -1.9% prior - (NO) Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.2% v -3.1% prior - (UK) Mar PPI Input M/M: 3.6% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 10.1% v 7.1%e; (largest YoY rise since Oct 2008) - (UK) Mar PPI Output M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.4%e (MoM increase the largest since May 2008 and YoY the larget since Nov 2008) - (UK) Mar PPI Output Core M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.1%e - (IC) Iceland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): v 14.0B prior - (GR) Greece Mar Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 3.9% v 2.8% prior; CPI EU Harmonized: 3.9% v 2.9% prior - (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -9.5% v -2.5% prior - (RU) Russia Feb Trade Balance: $15.2B v $16.8B prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets are rebounding from their largest single session contraction in 3-months during yesterday's session. Positive trading sentiment form Asia has aided European markets, but the main themes have been driven by recoveries in commodity prices (driven by copper) and an easing of market tests on the Greek/German sovereign spread. On the back of these actions, basic resource names have bounced higher, along with European financials that were punished yesterday on Greece concerns. Airline names have been under good focus as Air France [AF.FR], and SAS [SAS.SW] provided march load factor figures and Airbus [EAD.FR] confirmed its Q1 order and delivery book after the close yesterday. Concerns over a potential strike of German air traffic controllers failed to dampen positive sentiment in Lufthansa [LHA.GE]. Coal and iron ore related plays have received strong attention as it has been reported that Xstrata [XAT.UK] may be considering stepping into a complex Australian asset offer. Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] formally confirmed that iron negotiations were now being undertaken on a shorter, quarterly basis, confirming a broad sector trend. Equity markets have absorbed a plethora of data in-stride throughout the session, mostly taking the readings well. Volumes through the session have remained thin with a tight trading band into 5:30EST. Into the early NY morning, markets, on low momentum rolled slightly lower, giving back some opening gains.
- Individual equities: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]: Says it is negotiating iron ore contracts on a quarterly basis, talks are still occurring. || Air France [AF.FR]: Reports March load factor 80.5% v 70.5% y/y. || EADs [EAD.FR]: Airbus reports Q1 deliveries at 122 units v 116 units y/y. || Givaudan [GIVN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev CHF1.1B v CHF1Be; Confirms FY10 targets. || Swedbank [SWEDA.SW]: To leave Swedish state guarantee program; leaving with immediate effect. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Noyer reiterated the central bank view of moderate, fragile economic recovery in 2010. He noted that the rise in long end of yield curve and sovereign debt holdings might be a risk for European banks ***Greek Official commented that Greece itself was not aware of exact details of EU-IMF rescue plan approved by the EU at the March 25th Summit. The official stressed that it would take all necessary steps to complete USD bond sale. The official noted that Greece could still borrow in markets but conditions were making those operations difficult. Hoping that PIMCO buys the majority of USD bonds and subsequent roadshow to Japan and China was "highly unlikely" because of limited interest. He noted that if Greece used the EU-IMF plan, would hope to pay 4-4.5% interest rates *** Russian economic advisor Dvorkovich commented that Russia sought to push for more balanced monetary system and forge common goal with BRIC members at the next G20 Summit. He added that Russia was looking to use own currencies more in trade and continue talks on global currencies with BRIC members next week ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The USD and JPY was softer against the European currencies throughout the session with dealers noting some broad improvement in risk appetite. The sentiment was complemented with higher equity prices and a firm tone in commodities. The concerns over the Greek situation seemed to have calmed for the moment following the ECB press conference on Thursday and the release of the Q1 Greek budget deficit data, which saw a 40% improvement in the deficit levels from year ago comparisons.. *** The UK saw the March PPI data coming in far stronger than expected and this helped the GBP/USD pair probe towards the 1.54 area and Gilts futures extending session losses.
- Geo-political: The World Bank has approved a $3.75B loan to South Africa for further electricity capacity expansion by state owned utility Eskom. The bulk of the loan, $3B will go to a controversial coal fired facility that has meet strong international environmental criticism. The remaining tranche of $750M will be used to finance new solar and wind projects. *** Israeli PM Netanyahu has backed out of nuclear weapons conference being held in WashingtonDC next week. The move follows concerns that the state would be unfairly and harshly targeted over its nuclear weapons. While still an undeclared nuclear power, Israel's special weapons program is one of the international communities's 'worst kept secrets.'
- In the Papers: UK Telegraph noted that Deutsche Bank analyst believe that a Conservative election victory would be good for insurers and retailers but damage companies that rely on public spending. The article noted that bank believed that the best result for UK equities would be an outright Conservative victory" with a hung parliament or coalition government the worst outcome for companies
***Notes/Observations: - European peripheral spreads settle down in session as risk appetite is firmer - SPDR gold trust says holdings hit record highs. - UK PPI data surges in March thanks to energy-related items - Canada employment highlight of NY morning
***Looking Ahead*** - (PO) Portugal Feb Trade Balance: No est v -â‚¬1.3B prior - (RU) Russia Mar Budget Level (YTD): No est v -194.6B prior - 7:00 (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: 26.0Ke v 20.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.1%e v 8.2% prior - 8:00 (SZ) SNB Danthine - 10:00 (US) Feb Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v -0.1% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Final Trade Balance: No est v $243.9M prior - 00:00 (CH) China Mar Trade Balance: -$0.4Be v $7.6B prior
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