European Market Update: UK PPI data surges in March; Greek Q1 budget deficit data aids global risk appetite
Friday, April 09, 2010
European Market Update: UK PPI data surges in March; Greek Q1 budget deficit data aids global risk appetite
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (GE) Germany Feb Current Account: â‚¬9.1B v â‚¬7.0Be; Trade Balance: â‚¬12.6B v â‚¬114Be; Imports M/M: 0.2% v -2.3%e; Exports M/M: 5.1% v 4.0%e - (FI) Finland Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v 1.6%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v 1.3%e - (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -â‚¬40M v -â‚¬52M prior - (FR) Bank of France Mar Business Sentiment: 103 v 104e - (FR) France Feb Industrial Production M/M: % v -0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 4.0%e - (FR) France Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 4.5%e - (CZ) Czech Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e - (CZ) Czech Feb Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -23.6% v -25.6% prior - (CZ) Czech Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.9%e - (DE) Denmark Feb Current Account (DKK): 2.6B v -0.2B prior; Trade Balance (ex Shipping): 5.0B v 4.5B prior - (DE) Denmark Feb Industrial Production M/M: 2.5% v 3.7% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: -6.3% v -6.8% prior - (SW) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): 4.4B v 43.9B prior - 3:30 (SW) Sweden Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6% prior - 3:30 (SW) Sweden Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -0.9% v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: 12.5% v 3.9% prior - (NV) Netherlands Feb Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v 6.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.3% v 5.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 10.9% v 7.3% prior - (NO) Norway Mar CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e - (NO) Norway Mar CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9%e - (NO) Norway Mar Producer prices (incl oil) M/M: 2.3% v 2.1% prior; Y/Y: 21.7% v 18.8% prior - (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Manufacturing M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v -1.9% prior - (NO) Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.2% v -3.1% prior - (UK) Mar PPI Input M/M: 3.6% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 10.1% v 7.1%e; (largest YoY rise since Oct 2008) - (UK) Mar PPI Output M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.4%e (MoM increase the largest since May 2008 and YoY the larget since Nov 2008) - (UK) Mar PPI Output Core M/M: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.1%e - (IC) Iceland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): v 14.0B prior - (GR) Greece Mar Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 3.9% v 2.8% prior; CPI EU Harmonized: 3.9% v 2.9% prior - (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -9.5% v -2.5% prior - (RU) Russia Feb Trade Balance: $15.2B v $16.8B prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets are rebounding from their largest single session contraction in 3-months during yesterday's session. Positive trading sentiment form Asia has aided European markets, but the main themes have been driven by recoveries in commodity prices (driven by copper) and an easing of market tests on the Greek/German sovereign spread. On the back of these actions, basic resource names have bounced higher, along with European financials that were punished yesterday on Greece concerns. Airline names have been under good focus as Air France [AF.FR], and SAS [SAS.SW] provided march load factor figures and Airbus [EAD.FR] confirmed its Q1 order and delivery book after the close yesterday. Concerns over a potential strike of German air traffic controllers failed to dampen positive sentiment in Lufthansa [LHA.GE]. Coal and iron ore related plays have received strong attention as it has been reported that Xstrata [XAT.UK] may be considering stepping into a complex Australian asset offer. Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] formally confirmed that iron negotiations were now being undertaken on a shorter, quarterly basis, confirming a broad sector trend. Equity markets have absorbed a plethora of data in-stride throughout the session, mostly taking the readings well. Volumes through the session have remained thin with a tight trading band into 5:30EST. Into the early NY morning, markets, on low momentum rolled slightly lower, giving back some opening gains.
- Individual equities: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]: Says it is negotiating iron ore contracts on a quarterly basis, talks are still occurring. || Air France [AF.FR]: Reports March load factor 80.5% v 70.5% y/y. || EADs [EAD.FR]: Airbus reports Q1 deliveries at 122 units v 116 units y/y. || Givaudan [GIVN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev CHF1.1B v CHF1Be; Confirms FY10 targets. || Swedbank [SWEDA.SW]: To leave Swedish state guarantee program; leaving with immediate effect. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Noyer reiterated the central bank view of moderate, fragile economic recovery in 2010. He noted that the rise in long end of yield curve and sovereign debt holdings might be a risk for European banks ***Greek Official commented that Greece itself was not aware of exact details of EU-IMF rescue plan approved by the EU at the March 25th Summit. The official stressed that it would take all necessary steps to complete USD bond sale. The official noted that Greece could still borrow in markets but conditions were making those operations difficult. Hoping that PIMCO buys the majority of USD bonds and subsequent roadshow to Japan and China was "highly unlikely" because of limited interest. He noted that if Greece used the EU-IMF plan, would hope to pay 4-4.5% interest rates *** Russian economic advisor Dvorkovich commented that Russia sought to push for more balanced monetary system and forge common goal with BRIC members at the next G20 Summit. He added that Russia was looking to use own currencies more in trade and continue talks on global currencies with BRIC members next week ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The USD and JPY was softer against the European currencies throughout the session with dealers noting some broad improvement in risk appetite. The sentiment was complemented with higher equity prices and a firm tone in commodities. The concerns over the Greek situation seemed to have calmed for the moment following the ECB press conference on Thursday and the release of the Q1 Greek budget deficit data, which saw a 40% improvement in the deficit levels from year ago comparisons.. *** The UK saw the March PPI data coming in far stronger than expected and this helped the GBP/USD pair probe towards the 1.54 area and Gilts futures extending session losses.
- Geo-political: The World Bank has approved a $3.75B loan to South Africa for further electricity capacity expansion by state owned utility Eskom. The bulk of the loan, $3B will go to a controversial coal fired facility that has meet strong international environmental criticism. The remaining tranche of $750M will be used to finance new solar and wind projects. *** Israeli PM Netanyahu has backed out of nuclear weapons conference being held in WashingtonDC next week. The move follows concerns that the state would be unfairly and harshly targeted over its nuclear weapons. While still an undeclared nuclear power, Israel's special weapons program is one of the international communities's 'worst kept secrets.'
- In the Papers: UK Telegraph noted that Deutsche Bank analyst believe that a Conservative election victory would be good for insurers and retailers but damage companies that rely on public spending. The article noted that bank believed that the best result for UK equities would be an outright Conservative victory" with a hung parliament or coalition government the worst outcome for companies
***Notes/Observations: - European peripheral spreads settle down in session as risk appetite is firmer - SPDR gold trust says holdings hit record highs. - UK PPI data surges in March thanks to energy-related items - Canada employment highlight of NY morning
***Looking Ahead*** - (PO) Portugal Feb Trade Balance: No est v -â‚¬1.3B prior - (RU) Russia Mar Budget Level (YTD): No est v -194.6B prior - 7:00 (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: 26.0Ke v 20.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.1%e v 8.2% prior - 8:00 (SZ) SNB Danthine - 10:00 (US) Feb Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v -0.1% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Final Trade Balance: No est v $243.9M prior - 00:00 (CH) China Mar Trade Balance: -$0.4Be v $7.6B prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.