Commodities, Stocks likely to Rise if Dollar keeps Weakening
June Gold is trading higher overnight because of increased
demand for higher yielding assets and the weaker U.S. Dollar. Bullish traders
seemed to be unfazed by the optimistic developments over the Greece debt
situation. Earlier in the week gold bugs were buying the metal on speculation
of a possible default by Greece.
Gains could be limited today if rumors persist that Greek will get assistance
from the International Monetary Fund. Technically, this contract has reached a
key .618 retracement level at $1159.50.
June Crude Oil is trading better because of the weaker
Dollar and stronger Euro. Todayâ€™s rally is all about demand for higher risk
assets. Technically, holding an uptrending Gann angle at 85.77 indicates this
market is still in a major uptrend.
June Treasury Bonds are trading lower following Thursdayâ€™s
weak close. Yesterdayâ€™s T-Bond auction went well when compared to other 30-Year
Bond auctions, but not too well compared to the rest of the Treasury Note
auctions earlier in the week. Yields are up a little overnight. Look for
Treasuries to continue to fall if demand keeps rising for higher risk assets.
equity markets have recovered nicely from their one day break earlier in the
week to close in a position to challenge the highs for the year. Renewed
interest in higher risk assets is helping to boost the markets ahead of the New York opening.
Yesterdayâ€™s rally is more proof that traders remain interested in buying dips.
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower overnight against most
major currencies except the Japanese Yen as optimism over Greek debt woes
triggered renewed interest in higher yielding assets. The markets are also
making adjustments on speculation that China is readying to announce a
revaluation of the Yuan.
The June Euro is trading higher in a continuation of the
move which began on Thursday following optimistic comments regarding Greece from
European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet. The ECB President
dismissed speculation that Greece
would default on its debt.
inflation data is helping to propel the June British Pound overnight. The U.K.â€™s March
Producer Price Index accelerated 0.9% versus 0.3%. The annual rate rose 5%
versus a guess of 4.3%. This report coupled with the unexpected rise in final
Q4 GDP is another sign that the economy is improving.
The June Swiss Franc is trading higher because of the
improvement in the Euro. The strong rise in the Euro is diminishing the chances
of an intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
The June Japanese Yen is trading lower because of increased
demand for riskier assets. U.S.
equity markets are higher overnight which is encouraging Japanese investors to
sell the Yen in an effort to take advantage of the better returns in the U.S. equity
markets. Signs of a global economic recovery are being read as a plus for risk
sentiment.Losses in the Yen may be
limited because of comments from the Japanese government saying the likelihood
of a double-dip recession has been diminished.
Higher gold and crude oil prices are helping to drive the
June Canadian Dollar higher. Demand for the Canadian Dollar is strong because
of the prospects of a hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada ahead of the
U.S. Fed. Today, the Canadian Dollar will get its direction from the Canadian
Employment Report. Look for the addition of 25,000 jobs and an 8.2%
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