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Friday April 9, 2010 - 18:23:20 GMT
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FXTimes: Daily Weekly Technical Update 4.9.2010

Commodity Currencies Stay Ahead of the Pack

The Euro continues to be pressured, but the greenback is giving back some of its recent strength as well. On the other hand the Japanese currency stalled its slide, though there has not been any significant show of strength. These developments may thus be corrective so let’s continue to stalk them for a return of dollar strength, and/or Japanese yen weakness. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the AUD and the CAD continue to firm up along with gold and oil.

EUR/USD: 1.3050 Target Shelved as Market Consolidates

  • Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD has been projected to slide to the1.3050 area. The week began in the direction of this outlook, but failed to break below the previous low at 1.3280.
  • A rally is materializing as we can see in the 4H time-frame. The daily time-frame shows a reversal combination to end the week as well.
  • This all suggests some furthering of the near-term bullish attempt.
  • Remember however that the market is in an established bearish mode, so stalk this current rally as a correction.
  • The 4H chart shows a swing projection can bring the pair to 1.36. The RSI in this scenario would reflect sideways instead of bearish overall momentum.
  • The daily RSI still shows bearish momentum and may still do so after a rally to 1.36. (The range has been staying below 60).
  • So stalk the current rally towards 1.36 and see if topping action and a bearish attempt can follow. If so, look for the market to essentially range between 1.36 and 1.33 with a bearish bias.

GBP/USD Penetrating the 1.5350 Channel Resistance

  • Daily and 4H: The GBP/USD market was showing topping action at the 1.53 level to end last week. This week, it continued to “top off” as seen in the 4H time-frame, but instead of declining towards the 1.48 support, it broke above.
  • The daily shows that this break of short-term consolidation is still within the context of intermediate consolidation, with resistance at 1.5350. A break above 1.54 will be needed to establish a bullish outlook in the short/intermediate-term.
  • Looking at the daily, we see that the market is in a bearish mode, so the current rally should be stalked as a correction.
  • A Fibonacci cluster of 50% and 78.6% resides at the 1.56 level. A break above 1.54 therefore suggests a rally in the short-term to 1.56. A break above that would have significant implications in the intermediate and long-term.
  • The market can still top off again next week and return to the 1.48 area. It is best to wait for a decline and see if it is a throwback, which suggests a rally to at least 1.56. But if it is strong, it may be a continuation decline to test 1.48 and possibly even lower towards 1.44.

USD/JPY Offers Choppy Throwback

  • Daily and 4H: The USD/JPY pair was very bullish last week, and suggested that it can at least meet a swing projection at 96.0 area. This week however, the market was not ready to be committed to the intermediate bullish scenario yet.
  • The daily shows 3 strong bearish days after a string of bullish days. This 3-day correction is a classic warning of continuation.
  • We do see that the 2 candles after the 3 declines have decelerated. We can also see in the 4H time-frame that the market has already a completed 2-legged retracement. A third seems to be materializing.
  • Next week, I would look for bottoming action near 92.50.
  • The main thing I am looking for is a rally that can break above the declining channel resistance seen in the 4H chart. That spells continuation to 96.00.

USD/CAD: Parity Holds as Support

  • Daily and 4H: The USD/CAD headed towards the parity level last week.  The question is whether is could break further below. So far this week, it is holding as support.
  • We see bullish divergence lined-up in both the daily and 4H time-frame.
  • A bullish attempt did already materialize in the 4H time-frame, but it appears another attempt is at hand.
  • This second attempt could project the previous swing to complete a Gartley near 1.0130.
  • Or the market could have a triangle consolidation.
  • In any case, these bullish signals should only be expected to reflect short-term corrections.

EUR/GBP: Stalking Bullish Attempt in Bearish Mode

  • Daily and 4H: The EUR/GBP pair broke below the 0.8850 level this week and suggests a decline towards 0.8650.
  • The daily time-frame shows strong bearish momentum that is not oversold yet. Price action however shows rejection of bearish attempt to break below an intermediate term rising support.
  • The price action in the 4H time-frame is also signals a bullish reversal.
  • However, as the Euro continues to be bearish, today’s strength across the board should not be taken as indication of overall strength but rather a correction.
  • The 0.8850 area may be tested next week if the current euro strength expands. However, I would look for topping action here, and a bearish signal to continue the decline to 0.8650.

AUD/USD: Throwback Confirms Upside Breakout

  • Daily and 4H: The AUD/USD pair as corrected anticipated broke to the upside and is closing in to test the 94.00 high from November of 2009.
  • The daily chart shows the current rally nearing a swing projection that is coincident with the 94.00 resistance.
  • The 4H time-frame shows this week’s congestion pattern. This triangle provided many lessons.
  • 1. Patterns can develop into more complex patterns (bearish butterfly was only part of a larger ascending triangle.
  • 2. The trend is your friend.
  • 3. Wait for throwback/pullback. This is probably the main lesson here. There was a lack of  pullback to confirm the bearish breakout, while there was a throwback in the bullish breakout to confirm that.

GBP/JPY:  Continues Testing Resistance

  • Daily and 4H: The GBP/JPY continues to test the declining resistance near 144.50.
  • The 4H time-frame shows that there was already a completed Gartley at 38.2% retracement area near 141.0. Also the bullish attempt following that broke above the declining near-term resistance.
  • However, the market is not able to break above 144.50. If it does to start next week, and can sustain a low above 145.0, a major intermediate and possibly long-term bullish outlook can be considered.
  • The weekly chart below shows a full swing projection that nears 178. This is a long-term outlook, and is far from being confirmed.
  • Instead if the break above 145.00 is sustained, look for intermediate projections at the 61.8% retracement area near 151.20. Then the 163.0 2009-high is the next intermediate term target.


Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
[email protected]

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses. Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.


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