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Monday April 12, 2010 - 09:57:17 GMT
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European Market Update: Greek Aid package sooths risk appetite

Monday, April 12, 2010 5:54:00 AM

 European Market Update: Greek Aid package sooths risk appetite


- (CH) China Mar Foreign Exchange Reserves: $2.447T v $2.500Te
- (CH) China Mar New Yuan Loans: CNY510.7B v CNY709.0Be
- (IN) India Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 15.1% v 16.0%e
- (TU) Turkey Feb Current Account: -$2.6B v -$2.8Be
- (DE) Denmark Mar CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Denmark Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v -1.0%e; Ind Prod WDA Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e

- Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened strongly positive following the release of terms regarding a €45B bailout package for Greece (if or when it elects to use it). Confirmation of the package continued an upward trade that developed late on Friday as first reports of the program began to be leaked. Other macro flows that pushed markets higher on the open included trade data from China that showed continued builds in demand for energy and raw material inputs. Financials, miners and energy names led the initial upward rotation on these factors. A Q1 pre-released from UBS [UBSN.SZ] provided pre-tax figures and a continued slow down in client redemptions. The figures were greeted positively and further boosted the sector. Weekend news flows have set off new M&A speculation across the retail sector in the UK. Reports that Wal-Mart's [WMT] ASDA arm was looking to make sector buys as part of an accelerating campaign against Tesco [TSCO.UK] moved local rivals higher, Reports that Debenhams [DEB.UK] was interested in Stockmann's [STCBV.FH] have been watered down, but interest in related Russian retail plays continues. Despite the solid open, in continued weak trading volumes, markets have slid lower throughout the session with the FTSE100 briefing blipping into negative territory. European bourses bounced off the unchanged mark past 4:00EST and have been holding limited gains since that time.

- Individual equities: UBS [UBSN.SZ]: Reports Prelim Q1 pretax profit at least CHF2.5B v CHF2.2Be; Q1 money outflows substantially lower than Q4 (q/q). || Ladbrokes [LAD.UK]: Enters into agreement for sale of Italian business for apprx €5.25M. || CGG Veritas [GA.FR]: Reports Q1 Vessel availability rate at 90% v 86% q/q; v 93% y/y. || Heidelberg Cement [HEI.GE]: CFO Naeger: Believes that future refinancing rates charged to firm will continue to come down -Boersen-Zeitung. || Rusal [486.HK]: Reports FY09 Net profit $821M v $574Me, R$8.2B v $8.4Be; Names Vladislav Soloviev as first Deputy CEO. || Anglo American [AAL.UK]: South African Coal unit Exec: Prices expected to be maintained at approx $85/ton. || Orco [ORC.FR]: Raised €7.1M capital through private placement (9% of market cap)t; Remain in talks with investors regarding additional capital operations. ||

- Speakers: IMF's Strauss-Kahn commented in a magazine interview that the financial crisis might be over but economic impact continues to be felt. Growth in Europe must be more balanced in the future and stated that it needed joint European economic policy. Deflation was the only effective option to solve the Greek situation and must discuss how high inflation should be at some future point ***ECB's Bini Smaghi commented in a report that the Greece agreement was a guarantee of stability for Euro . Greece's deal had avoided in Europe what happened in the US after Lehman's failure. He noted that without a deal there could have been a contagion to other countries and institutions. The Greek deal gave assurances that Europe including Germany were prepared to act and the EU council would work on reform to reinforce governance of public finances and structural divergences. *** German's Fin Min Spokesperson commented that conditions on Greece's aid package should not be automatic but Germany would contribute €8.4B (28%) to Greece's aid if the package was activated ***Thai Central Bank expressed concerns over recent political protests and its impact on both investors and consumer confidence. The central bank also noted that the recent violent protests raised the risk of a possible sovereign rating cut. ***Poland's Economic Adviser Filar: Polish rate panel has legal problems without a governor . he reiterated the view that both the central bank and government agreed on the recent Zloty currency intervention. Too fast Zloty appreciation could weaken the Polish economic recovery *** *** ECB released a European Financial Market Integration report and stated that European markets gradually returning to pre-crisis state . It noted that the ECB active presence in markets remained essential as full market functionality has yet to be restored. Spreads on credit default swaps show investors have repriced sovereign risk in the euro region and CDS spreads have decreased considerably since March 2009, but remained far above the pre-crisis levels at the end of 2009 *** Japan Fin Min Kan commented that currency rates and JGB yields should be set by market forces and that a weakening JPY trend was desirable for companies. He added that monetary easing might have limited effect against deflation

- Currencies/Fixed Income: Euro was broadly higher surged at the expense of the USD and JPY ahead of the European morning following the agreement by euro zone members to offer a €30B loan to Greece. The news did surface during Friday's session and set the tone in Asia. The rise in risk appetite underpinned commodities and equity markets as well. Bunds and Gilts declined in early trade as risk appetite picked up. EUR/USD succumbed to profit taking after it fell just short of 1.3700, which was cited as a 23.6% fib retracement level of 1.5143 to 1.3267 range. The 10-year spread on the Greek/German bonds narrowed to below 330bps after hitting a post euro launch record over 440bps last week. Credit-default swaps on Greek sovereign debt tumbled almost 70 bps to move below 360 bps ***The JPY was softer on rising risk appetite but also helped by comments out of Japan. Fin Min Kan commented that currency rates and JGB yields should be set by market forces and that a weakening JPY trend was desirable for companies. USD/JPY at 93.50 area.

- Geo-political: Polish equity and bond markets remain open with the Central Bank maintaining its commitment to continuing regular business operations. The decisions follows the crash of Polish Special Aviation Regiments Tu-154M that was carrying the President, Central Bank Gov, Chief of the General Staff of Polish Military, Head of National Security, three senate members and 15 Parliament members on Saturday. The delegation was flying to a memorial service for the 20K+ Polish citizens murdered at Katyn and other sites throughout the USSR in 1940 *** A month-long political rally/protest by the 'red shirts' in Thailand turned deadly over the weekend with 21 protesters killed. Government authorities have disputed the circumstances of the deaths, stating the police were armed with non-lethal weapons. Protestors have occupied various government and media outlets in an increasingly bold campaign to dispose the current administration. *** Hungary completed first round parliamentary elections with Viktor Orban's center right Fidsez taking 52.8% of the vote. The ruling Socialist party took 19.3% of the vote and conceded defeat. Disturbingly, the far right Jobbik Party took 16.7% of the vote on a xenophobic platform. Regional run-off election will be held on April 25 for contested districts.

- In the Papers: Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commented on rise in Greek bond yields above 700bps vs the Bund as indication that Greece cannot get credit at "bearable cost". The article noted that the latest package by EU/IMF "achieves nothing", as Greece needs €110B to get out of fiscal crisis considering that "default and devaluation" are not an option.

- Bond investors' response will determine whether Greece needs to tap the aid; 10-year Greek/German spread at 330bps versus 440bps last week
- China New Yuan loans below market expectations

***Looking Ahead***
- 8:15 (CA) Canada Mar Housing Starts: 200.0Ke v 196.6K prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Gross Fixed Investment: -4.5%e v -4.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.4%e v 3.6% prior
- 10: 30 (CA) Canada Q1 Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v 49.0 prior; BOC Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -8.7 prior
- 14:00 (US) Mar Monthly Budget Statement: -$105.0Be v -$191.6B prior



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