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Monday April 12, 2010 - 09:58:32 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Sigh of Relief

The Daily Forex View


A Sigh of Relief

the plan should have given Greece some breathing space in the near term to address its financial problems. One important characteristic of this EZ crisis is that it refuses to go away, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens in the days and weeks ahead. Some now have their eyes on  other peripheral E-Z players. For the longer term, the bulk of the EZ simply is not competitive at current exchange rates and in one way or another that issue will have to be addressed with a weaker EUR.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:50
EUR 1.3609 116 JPY 127.26 150 JPY 144.24 92
GBP 1.5425 47 GBP 88.23 48 CHF 163.46 -42
CHF 1.0597 -60 CHF 1.4421 42 CHF vs.    
JPY 93.51 31       JPY 88.24 79

The EURUSD is now higher and the EURGBP is up. The GBPUSD is higher. As leaked on Friday the EU came up with a Greek bailout plan over the weekend. In the U.K., the general election is May 6. It has markets reacting to each new headline. This will go on for the next three weeks. Although most polls favor the Tories, results have been mixed. We still maintain a cautiously bearish bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD. The EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is up. Some say the SNB has changed tactics and has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF quietly all the time.  The chronic weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is up modestly, and the EURJPY cross is up. The government continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth and favors an easier exchange rate. Some traders have been focused intently on the Japanese vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

There remains persistent talk that there is a lot of yen waiting in the wings ready to be sold. We remain bullish USDJPY, but EURJPY is a tough call. Some say that an expected CNY revaluation would give the JPY a lift, but we would be surprised if the exchange rate is raised by more than a token amount. 

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:50
CAD 1.0064 28 AUD 0.9286 -47 Gold 1163 2.75
CNY 6.8262 23 NZD 0.7131 -23 WTI 85.43 0.54

The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are modestly weaker. Recent Comments by Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty suggest little concern about the strength of the currency. A major focus was the orderliness of recent CAD gains. Friday saw the release of a decent, but disappointing (vs. expectations) employment report. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy too early. Oil and gold are up. We continue to favor the AUD and CAD from a fundamental perspective.

Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses are up modestly. U.S. equities are firmer. In U.S. Treasuries, many are watching the psychological 4.00% level in the 10-yr note. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.91%, +3 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:50
NIK 11252 48 DAX 6257 7 DJIA 10997 11
HSI 22138 -70 FTSE 5776 5 S&P 1194 0
SSEC 3129 -16 SMI 6926 0 NAS 2454 2
ASX 4984 36       TSE 12177 1

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In Europe and North America , no major data are slated.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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