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Monday April 12, 2010 - 13:53:08 GMT
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Euro Gaps Higher after EU unveils Greece Bailout Plan

The Euro gapped higher against the Dollar after European nations unveiled their plan to bailout debt-ridden Greece. The surge in the EUR USD helped initially to drive up demand for higher yielding currencies while putting pressure on the Japanese Yen.


The Greek rescue package of loans was pegged at as much as 40 billion Euros. The details of the plan reveal that this amount is expected to be treated as a line of credit that Greece can tap as it deems necessary. This plan includes the support of the International Monetary Fund which makes it similar to the plan revealed last month.


After taking austere measures to shore up its finances, Greece has been suffering through severe financial problems as the country tries to adjust to a different way of conducting business. Recently it tried to tap the capital markets for financing, but that proved to be a near-disaster as interest rates soared, driving down bond prices while pushing up the cost of servicing the debt.


Shorts covered on the opening, driving the Euro higher but many traders agree that Greece is not out of the woods yet which means another wave of selling pressure could start as early as Tuesday. On April 13th, Greek will auction Treasury Bills. A failure to trigger demand for these financial instruments could force Greece to tap the funds available through the loan package. This action is likely to push the Euros down once again as traders will see this as a sign that Greece is going to be at the lending window often during this so-called recovery phase.


Technically, the Euro turned the main trend higher on the breakout over 1.3591. The Euro opened at 1.3659 then rallied to 1.3691. Since reaching its peak, the Euro has been under pressure. Shortly before the New York session, it is falling back into a retracement zone at 1.3607 to 1.3542. Traders could try to establish support at the old main top at 1.3591 or try to fill the gap, all the way down to 1.3498.


The lack of major economic reports today mean GBP USD traders will be focusing more on the developments in the Euro. Last night, the British Pound gapped slightly higher in reaction to the news of the Greece bailout package. After penetrating a .618 level at 1.5419, this market has fallen back below this level. The charts indicate that there may be a pull-back to 1.5297 to 1.5277.


The USD CHF plunged overnight as the Euro soared. The market is currently trading inside of a short-term range of 1.0434 to 1.0785. Overnight the market stalled inside a retracement zone at 1.0610 to 1.0568. Looking at the bigger picture, this market is trading inside of a major triangle formation with 1.0717 the upside target and 1.0455 the downside support.


The Dollar is gaining on the Japanese Yen as Greece’s bailout proposal has driven up demand for higher risk assets. The short-term range is 94.77 to 92.83 with makes 93.80 to 94.03 the next potential upside target. Downtrending Gann angle resistance is 93.52. Taking out this level could drive the Dollar/Yen to 94.15 over the near-term.  If U.S. equity markets begin to sell-off, then look for a resumption of the break back to 92.26.


The USD CAD is trading higher despite higher crude oil and gold.  Late last week, this pair stopped at .9975 and formed a closing price reversal bottom. Based on the short-term range of 1.0302 to .9975, traders should look for a possible rally to 1.0138 to 1.0177. Fundamentally, Friday it was revealed that Canadian employment fell short of the pre-report forecast. This encouraged weaker shorts to lighten up their positions. Watch for this pair to strengthen once 1.0082 is taken out.


After surging to a 5-month high on increased demand for higher yielding assets, the AUD USD reversed course, erasing all of its earlier gains following a government report which showed the housing market may weaken. Traders began selling the Aussie after it was reported that home-loan approvals fell more than economists forecast. Technically, the Australian Dollar is in a position to post a closing price reversal top. Based on the short-term range of .9001 to .9387, traders should look for a possible short-term retracement to .9194 to .9184.


The reversal in the Aussie Dollar helped pressure the NZD USD. Technically, the Kiwi began to attract selling pressure as it approached a .618 retracement level at .7199.  The actual top came in at .7193. Shortly before the opening, this pair is testing a 50% level at .7125. It looks as if this pair will take its direction from the Australian Dollar today.


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