News of the new Greece aid package drove U.S.
Equity markets higher overnight, but a strong rally never materialized as
investors sorted out the details of the newly proposed aid package. In
addition, most investors seemed to be standing aside ahead of the start of
earnings season. After the close today, Alcoa kicks off the season with its
first quarter report. No one seemed willing to step in front of this report.
Treasury markets were up sharply throughout the day. The
initial rally was triggered by relief that a â€śsolutionâ€ť was reached regarding Greeceâ€™s
financing. A second, larger rally was fueled by concerns that company earnings
may not be as strong as the stock market indicates. Traders took protection in
the June Treasury Bonds and Notes as a hedge against upcoming bad earnings
After an initial surge because of a weaker Dollar, June Gold
erased all of its gains and finished under a .618 retracement level at
$1159.50. Some traders feel there is more downside potential if those traders
who bought gold in anticipation of a Greek default decide to liquidate their
positions. Todayâ€™s reversal top also indicates the start of a possible
correction back to $1137.80.
June Crude Oil finished lower. The Euroâ€™s inability to
follow-through to the upside after an early session spike fueled the selling
pressure. Trading activity was been light with most traders feeling a break
through 84.86 will trigger an acceleration down to a 50% level at 83.43.
The June Euro settled into a range after gapping open and
pulling back from its high throughout the New York
session, as traders awaited more details about the Greece bailout package. In
addition, traders are waiting for Tuesdayâ€™s Greek Treasury bill auction.
Investors want to see whether there is strong demand for short-term Greek debt
or if it is going to have to borrow to keep up with its financial obligations.
The commodity and equity markets gave mixed signals today.
Initially, both asset classes rallied as the Euro broke out to the upside. Some
traders felt that this new agreement eliminated concerns about Greeceâ€™s
ability to meet its short-term obligations. Some even felt that the funding was
enough to ensure that Greece
would have enough liquidity to implement its new austere financial measures.
The June British Pound gave back all of its overnight gains
and posted a daily closing price reversal top. The British Pound piggy-backed
the Euroâ€™s rally but turned negative when it broke off its high. The charts
indicate a break back to 1.5297 is likely over the near-term.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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