Tuesday April 13, 2010 - 03:36:28 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 13-Apr-2010 - 0334 GMT
The US Equities ended marginally higher after a volatile session yesterday. The Dow (11005.97) was up 0.08% and the Nasdaq (2457.87)was up 0.16%. The Dow closed above 11000 for the first time since Sep-08. In the coming weeks, we see good chances of a correction on the Dow which may bring it down to 10500, while below 11100.
The Asian Indices are mixed today. The Nikkei (11141.30) is down about 1% on higher Yen, the Shanghai (3164.436) is up 1.12% and the Hang Seng (22236.10) is up 0.44%. In India, the Sensex (17853.00) was down 0.45% and the Nifty (5339.70) was down 0.41% yesterday. The Sensex appears to be overbought at current levels and may fall towards 17000 or even 16000 while below 18100-300 in the coming weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4999.600) is down 0.24%.
Crude (84.04) fell and closed below 85 yesterday as the demand concerns and the high inventories are continuing to retain the downside pressure. Suppport is seen at 83 and if it holds we might see a bounce back once again to 86-87. A strong break below 83 might increase the chances of further dip to 82-80 in the coming days.
Gold (1153.30) has come off from yesterday's high of 1170 following the stronger dollar. However, with immediate Support at 1140-30 region within the broad 1140-00 Support region, the overall picture continue to remain bullish for a rise once again to 1200-25 in the coming days/weeks.
Sharp fall in Dollar-Yen (92.75), carrying on down from yesterday. See chances of further dip to 92.40-00, where it might be worth buying. Euro-Yen (126.05) trades lower as a result. The Euro (1.3585) had come off a bit yesterday on fresh/ niggling doubts about Greece's ability to get funding. The Euro might well trade sideways between 1.33-37 for the next several days. At least a dip towards 1.3450 looks possible, to cover yesterday's opening gap. In the longer term, there are increasing chances of Dollar-Yen moving up substantially.
The Pound (1.5355) has dipped a bit from yesterday's high near 1.5484 and might move up towards 1.55-56 ahead of the elections. Dollar-Swiss (1.0595) is trading weak compared to Thursday's high near 1.0785, and looks like it may trade sideways between 1.05-07 for the next several days.
The Aussie (0.9255) has fallen substantially yesterday, coming down from a high near 0.9366. This is a setback in its attempt to break into a higher trading plane above 0.9350. A reactive dip towards 0.9200-9150 may have to be allowed for. The recent strength in the Yen may have been a dampner for the Aussie.
Among the Asians, the Korean Won (1118.80) has weakened a bit from levels near 1111 yesterday. USD-SGD (1.3921) has also rallied a bit from yesterday's low near 1.3847. The Rupee had also weakened to 44.47 yesterday alongwith the other Asians. A further rally to 44.50-60 might attract short-term selling.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 6 bps and 7 bps each to quote at 1.03% and 3.84% respectively.
08:30 GMT UK Mar Trade Balance
...Expected $ -7.3 Bln...Previous $ -8.0 Bln
12:30 GMT US Feb Trade Balance
...Expected $ -38.4 Bln...Previous $ -37.3 Bln
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