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Tuesday April 13, 2010 - 13:04:22 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 13/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 13,
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman
Traders of the US anticipate the testimony by Ben
Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman. He will be testifying in Washington DC,
regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may
determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
The Euro retreated from the post-gap top, and filled more
than a third of the gap. This normal retreat after the sharp rise from 1.3281
has not done any harm for the technical outlook, since the price is still above
the broken line with a comfortable margin. But the fragile consolidation above
1.3567 makes us expect more downside activity, immediately after it is broken.
If this support gives way, the Euro will fall further, targeting two important
levels: the first of which is the gap filling level at 1.3495, and the second
has a huge importance for the short and may be medium term as well, since it
combines Fibonacci 61.8% and the broken trend line which we said it is very
important to stay above, in order to achieve more gains. The resistance is at
1.3643 and only if it is broken, we can expect more gains, and a new weekly
high, since the targets for such a break will be 1.3709 &
â€¢ 1.3667: Asian session low gap filling level.
38.2% for the rise from 1.3281.
â€¢ 1.3495: filling the gap level.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3281.
short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
â€¢ 1.3709: Fibonacci 23.6% for the whole drop from
1.5143 to 1.3266.
â€¢ 1.3794: Mar 12th
The falling trend line from
94.77 frustrated another attempt for the Dollar-Yen to rise, stopping it at
93.59. Then we saw the price obey the trend line and dropped almost 100 pips,
entering the 92 areas. The thing is that, the technical outlook has not changed
for days. We are still trading very slowly in a correction to the up move which
topped at 94.77, which is a correction that managed to reach its first target at
92.85. We are still watching for any other technical evidences to decide whether
this correction has finished at Fibonacci 38.2% or that it is still going and
will soon target Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% levels. Support is at 92.26 and in
case it is broken, the price will continue its drop from 94.77 (the correction),
and will target the most important support for the short term (and may be the
medium term as well) 91.66, and if broken we will target 91.07 as a modest
target for such a break on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance it is
at 93.26, and breaking it would indicate that we are back to the 94areas after
completing a modest correction, and we will target 94.07 &
â€¢ 92.26: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from
â€¢ 91.66: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 89.74, a very important
support for the short term.
â€¢ 91.07: Mar 12th
â€¢ 93.26: the falling trend line from 94.77 on
â€¢ 94.07: important intraday support/resistance.
â€¢ 95.05: Aug
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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