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Tuesday April 13, 2010 - 13:50:31 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Two Kinds of Dumb ...

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Key News
• Commerzbank analysts see any euro recovery after the rescue deal agreed for Greece as short-lived. Key details of the package are missing, they say, particularly the conditions that would be imposed on Greece. Investors may worry the ECB “might sacrifice its principles”, especially as it has already caved in on collateral rules. The market may be concerned normalization of financial policy could be postponed, while conclusion the ECB is giving consideration to “runaways” rather than aligning policies with the whole of the EZ “could stoke inflation fears”. Either is “poison for the euro”, they say. (Reuters)

• TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - A group of Japanese ruling party lawmakers is calling on the government to try to push down the yen to around 120 yen to the dollar to help beat deflation, a draft proposal showed on Tuesday, sending the yen sharply lower.

• BEIJING, April 13 (Reuters) - China's four largest banks could face a capital shortfall of 480 billion yuan ($70.3 billion) over the next five years, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China President Yang Kaisheng said in remarks published on Tuesday.

It will be difficult for banks to rely exclusively on raising money in markets for replenishing their capital, Yang said, though he did not mention any alternatives.  
Some analysts think the government, which bolstered the country's biggest commercial lenders through aggressive recapitalisation over the past decade, will need to inject more cash in them.

Chinese banks are under pressure to raise money to repair their stretched balance sheets after lending a record 9.6 trillion yuan last year, when the government called on them to fuel the economy with easy credit.

• BANGKOK, April 13 (Reuters) - Thai "red shirt" protesters threatened on Tuesday to march on an army barracks where Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has been based after the Election Commission unexpectedly recommended his party be dissolved.

Abhisit, who came to power in 2008 when the army brokered a deal in parliament, would have to step down if the Constitutional Court, following the Election Commission's findings, found his Democrat Party guilty of funding irregularities.

The red shirts, who want Abhisit to quit now, said they would step up their protest, after their month-long rally turned violent on Saturday, with plans to send out hundreds of motorcyclists handing out leaflets and pictures from the clashes.

Quotable
“Look, mister, there's ... two kinds of dumb, uh ... guy that gets naked and runs out in the snow and barks at the moon, and, uh, guy who does the same thing in my living room. First one don't matter, the second one you're kinda forced to deal with.” —George, Hoosiers

FX Trading – Two Kinds of Dumb ...  

Minus the chance that some lunatic is streaking through your living room, I think the pearls of wisdom in the above quotable can easily be applied to so many real-life situations these days.

I’ll apply it to one ...

First, say beautiful Canada went and did something totally ridiculous – fiscally, monetarily, or whatever – that resulted in a major, lasting blow to their economy. Would the US suffer the embarrassment and repercussions from its neighbor’s economic indiscretion?

Well, seeing that Canada is the US’s largest trading partner, I’m sure the calamity would not go completely unnoticed on the south side. But whose responsibility is it to get Canada’s house back in order? Certainly not that of the US -- the US economy would trudge along as usual, barely batting an eyelash, because the naked guy is still somewhere outside.

Canada would be stuck with the task of covering its indecent economic exposure.

Now let’s turn the attention to the other side of the Atlantic, where everyone seems to have turned their attention. And for good reason ...

Greece is naked. And they’re howling in the living rooms of the Eurozone members. Of course, some members are howling the same tune; but others are just suffering through a bunch of fully-exposed dogs knocking over their end tables and tearing up their couches.

Unfortunately, they’re forced to deal with it; they’re all forced to deal with it; they’ve got to open their doors, to reach into their own wardrobes.

From Morgan Stanley ...

What's new: The outcome of the teleconference among the euro area finance ministers (i.e., the Eurogroup), together with the ECB and the European Commission, is that Greece will get up to €30 billion in the first year from the euro area countries alone, if it asks for financial help. The IMF's contribution is unclear at this stage, but it was once again mentioned that the split two-thirds from the euro area governments and one-third from the IMF is a "correct order of magnitude".

I emphasize the small piece in bold. It basically means the pieces are in place, and if Greece starts howling any louder the rest of the pack will need to cover them.

How much the €30 billion in available loans will impact other Eurozone member countries remains to be seen. But since things are largely challenging across the system, it’s a good bet they all could do without the forced giving.

For instance, Morgan Stanley has upped the ante on their bearish forecast for Spain. The housing market is expected to experience further downside adjustment; employment will remain a problem for longer; GDP will remain in the red through 2010; loan growth has been hit extremely hard and is likely to follow the trend lower.

What happens when you are the naked guy howling at the moon?

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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