The U.S. Dollar traded mixed overnight but shortly before
the New York
opening, there are signs it may open lower. Most of the overnight pressure is
coming from the strengthening British Pound.
The Euro is trading slightly better ahead of the New York session
following an overnight session which saw this pair test 1.3555. This break
stopped short of a 50% retracement level at 1.3542 and filling the gap from
Sunday night with a test of 1.3498.
Trading has been tentative in the Euro since the EU approved
a measure to bailout Greece
with short-term loan package. The initial reaction on the opening Sunday was a
gap-higher opening, but the market has sold off since that unusually strong
opening. Aggressive traders took advantage of the higher opening by shorting
the spike up and rode the market down as traders remained cautious ahead of
last night Greek T-Bill auction.
Investors were watching this auction carefully to see how
would have to pay to fund its government over the near-term. The concern was
that the cost to finance its current budget would force it to tap the $61
billion loan package from the European Union. The results of the auction were
better than expected. There was a very strong bid-to-cover but Greece had to
pay for this demand. Six-month T-Bills settled at 4.55%. Fifty-Two week T-Bills
finished at 4.85%. To put it in perspective, during last weekâ€™s turmoil, Greece would
have had to pay 6 to 7%. Overall, one would have to say, it was a good auction.
The result of the auction does not mean the crisis is over. Based
on the overnight trade, market participants are still very nervous. The high
cost of the debt also indicates that Greece will have to borrow
additional funds to stabilize its financing. There is evidence that hedge funds
were aggressive sellers overnight. Overall, the trade has been very tight with
a slight bias to the downside. Many traders are still maintaining a â€śsell the
rallyâ€ť mentality with the objective of filling the gap left by Sunday nightâ€™s
strong opening. How much the Euro weakens will be determined by the amount it
has to borrow from its European partners.
The GBP USD is trading higher after a report showed that the
trade deficit beat expectations. The overnight report showed that the deficit
narrowed substantially in February following a disappointing report in January.
The number also reflects the positive impact the weak U.K. currency
has had on demand for British imports. Optimistic traders feel that the low
British Pound has finally paid off by increasing the competitiveness of U.K. exports.
Although the British Pound is trading higher, gains could be
limited because of concerns over the upcoming May election. Traders are waiting
for the competing parties to offer succinct plan as to how the winning party
will begin to shore up the budget deficit.
The mixed Euro is helping to hold the USD CHF in a tight
range between a pair of retracement levels at 1.0610 and 1.0568. This pair is
waiting for the Euro to make its move. A stronger Euro will put pressure on the
Dollar. A weaker Euro will help the Dollar appreciate.
The USD JPY saw a slight rise early in trading session after
reports surfaced of a clash between the Japanese government and the Bank of
Japan. The main sticking point between the two factions is monetary policy and
the fight over how to avoid deflation. The lower equity markets helped turn
this pair around and expectations are for the Japanese Yen to open a little
better this morning.
The USD CAD is trading lower because of a drop in gold and
crude oil prices. This news is putting short-term pressure on the Canadian
Dollar. There is evidence in the Canadian financial markets that traders are
increasing bets that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates on June 1.
Traders are now pricing in a 50% probability of a rate hike sooner than the
previous estimate of July 1. Traders are citing the hot economy as the main
reason for the change in the estimate.
Today, investors are looking for the Canadian trade data to
show an increase for the third consecutive month although the market will be
most sensitive to the movement in gold, crude oil and equity prices.
The AUD USD is trading lower and still feeling the pressure
from Mondayâ€™s drop in home loan approvals. This report indicates that the
housing market may face issues in the upcoming months. Mondayâ€™s closing price
reversal top was confirmed overnight. The charts are now indicating the strong
possibility of a correction to .9194 over the near-term.
On Monday, the NZD USD fell in sympathy with the Australian
Dollar, but today the New Zealand Dollar is trading better as traders feel that
the break was overdone. Currently this market is in an uptrend but finding a
balance on a 50% price level at .7124. This price will dictate the marketâ€™s
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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