***Economic Data*** - (US) Mar NFIB Small Business Optimism: 86.8 v 89.2e - (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/w April 10th: +0.1% w/w, +4.0% y/y - (PD) Poland Feb Current Account: â‚¬106M v â‚¬150M; Trade Balance: -â‚¬248M v -â‚¬82Me - (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$39.7B v -$38.5Be - (US) Mar Import Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 11.4% v 11.7%e - (CA) Canada Feb Intl Merchandise Trade: C$1.4B v C$0.6Be - (CA) Canada Feb New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e - (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Apr 10th: +3.3% y/y; MTD -1.3% v Mar - (US) Apr IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 48.4 v 47.5e prior
- Just yesterday the DJIA opened above 11,000 for the first time in 18 months, but in pre-market trading this morning it was back below this key level as investors pulled back on Alcoa's somewhat disappointing results. Notes that Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs's chief US economist, stated that the second half of 2010 is posing more threats to the recovery than the first, with the withdrawal of stimulus and changes in the inventory cycle set to be a drag on the economy. Front month crude continues to back off recent highs, with the contract down nearly a buck from yesterday's open, trading around $83. Gold is also coming off recent highs, with the contract around $1,150 this morning.
- Alcoa met earnings expectations (ex-charges) and missed on the top line by a bit. With investors looking for more solid top line revenue growth during this earnings season, Alcoa's results came as something of a bad sign, although executives from the firm continue to predict very strong aluminum demand growth this year. Shares of AA are down 2%. Two more industry bellwethers, Intel and CSX, report after the close this evening. In other earnings, high-end apparel name Talbots beat top- and bottom-line expectations and offered very strong guidance for the coming quarter. TLB was up 8% just after the bell, but has come in somewhat. CF Industries is off nearly 3% after warning investors that its revenue would miss estimates this quarter, blaming lower sales volumes in nitrogen and phosphate segments. Manufacturer Tennant offered blow-out guidance for its Q1 on double-digit sales increases. Shares of TNC are up nearly 15%. Two small acquisition deals are moving some names in early trade. Kratos fell nearly 5% after acquiring a private competitor and cutting its revenue target to well below par, although KTOS has recouped losses in the first hour of trade. Petrohawk Energy is up more than 3% after selling a 50% share in its Haynesville shale gas gathering operations for $875M in cash.
- The dollar maintained the ranges seen in the European session but recovered from its earlier soft tone during the NY morning with dealers citing lower US yields as a contributing factor. The 2-year yield probed under 1.04% and well down from Monday highs near 1.10%. EUR/USD is maintaining a 1.3570-1.3620 range, while USD/JPY dipped back below the 93 handle.
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:00 (TU) Turkey Central Bank interest rate decision: Expected to maintain the Base Rate unchanged at 6.50% - 12:45 US Treasury Sec Geithner - 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
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