The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3545
level and was capped around the $1.3625 level. The common currency did not have a major
reaction to news that Greece successfully sold â‚¬1.2 billion in 26- and 52-week
treasury bills â€“ the first debt auction since the European Union and
International Monetary Fund jointly announced a financial aid package for
Greece this weekend worth up to â‚¬40 billion.The big question among traders is whether or not Greece will be forced
to tap its aid package.A lackluster day
in U.S. equities also prevented the common currency from making significant
moves.Many dealers believe the euroâ€™s
upside will be challenged in the medium-term by sub-par economic growth. European Union officials will deliberate stricter
fiscal surveillance later this week to try and avoid a repeat of the Greek
situation.Eurozone February industrial
production will be released tomorrow and the European Central Bank will release
its April monthly report on Thursday.German
data released today saw the March headline consumer price inflation number
print at an unchanged +0.5% m/m and +1.1% y/y and were up 0.6% m/m and 1.2% y/y
on a harmonized basis.Also, the March
wholesale price index was up 1.3% m/m and 4.3% y/y.Other data saw the French February current
account print at -â‚¬3.6 billion while the March consumer price index was up 0.5%
m/m and 1.6% y/y.In U.S. news, data released today saw the March NFIB small business
optimism index recede to 86.8 while the February trade balance worsened to â€“US$
39.7 billion with the March import price index up 0.7% m/m and 11.4% y/y.The March consumer price index, March retail
sales, and Fed Beige Book will be released tomorrow. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak later today
and may use the opportunity to tweak some policymaking language, including the
term â€śextended periodâ€ť in reference to the probable length of time the Fed will
keep rates low.There is also a chance
that Fed officials could give more information about a likely request from regional
Fed banks to raise the discount rate.Euro
bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ92.55
level and was capped around the ÂĄ93.40 level. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan released
a draft document wherein policymakers defended the need for a weaker yen.The document suggested the ÂĄ120 level would
be â€śconvenientâ€ť and called for â€śdrastic monetary easing,â€ť adding the government
and Bank of Japan should target an inflation level â€śover 2.0%.â€ťData released in Japan today saw the March
domestic corporate goods price index rise 0.2% m/m and decline 1.3% y/y, both
lower than expected.Also, March
Tokyo-area condominium sales were up 54.2%.BoJ Governor Shirakawa reported â€śWeâ€™re starting to see more positive signs
than negative signsâ€ť including â€śslightâ€ť improvements in wages and commodities
prices.He added the economy is â€śpicking
upâ€ť and said declines in consumer prices are moderating.Many dealers expect BoJ to raise their price
forecasts when its Policy Board convenes again later this month.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.81% to
close at ÂĄ11,161.23.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ÂĄ96.85 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen
as the single currency tested bids around the ÂĄ125.70 level and was capped around
the ÂĄ127.05 level.The British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids
around the ÂĄ142.05 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ88.30 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8256 in the over-the-counter
market, down from CNY 6.8257. Speculation
is increasing that China will float its currency or announce a significant
revaluation by the end of the quarter, possibly a widening of the USD/CNY band
by about 3%.President Obama met with
President Hu last night and the two discussed trade relations and a more
market-oriented yuan exchange rate.Some
economists are predicting Chinaâ€™s economy expanded an annualized 11.7% in the
first quarter.Many data will be
released in China tomorrow including Q1 GDP, March PPI, March CPI, March retail
sales, and March industrial production.
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5450 level and was supported around the $1.5335 level. Bank of England reported overall mortgage
costs increased for the first time in six months in March.Data released in the U.K. today saw February
DCLG house prices climb 7.4% y/y, up from the prior reading of +6.2%, while the
February total trade balance printed at -ÂŁ2.061 billion.Other data saw the March RICS house price
balance come in at 9%, down from the February total of 18%.March Nationwide consumer confidence data
will be released tomorrow. Traders are closely monitoring the lead-up to the U.K.
general election on 6 May amid talk that Prime Minister Brown may have narrowed
the gap against Tory challenger Cameron, the presumed favourite.Dealers are still speculating the most likely
scenario will be a hung Parliament and sterling has generally been weaker as a
result of this premise.Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.5140 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8800 figure and
was capped around the ÂŁ0.8860 level.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0540 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0600 figure.Data to be released in Switzerland this week
include the March producer and import price index. Last Friday, Swiss National
Bank Governing Board member Danthine said â€śavoiding inflationâ€ť is a
â€śmedium-termâ€ť challenge.U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level.The euro moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4335
level while the British pound moved lower
vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6215 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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