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The Daily Forex View
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20:00 GMT- Apr 13 (global-view.com) Forex markets seem to be biding their time waiting for high impact news/events. The focus on Tuesday early was still on the Greek debt situation. That government issued short-term 26- and 52-wk bills. While the auctions were well over subscribed, the yields, 4.55% and 4.85%, were seen as high. At some point the government will have to step forward and borrow longer term funds. The EU backstop package announced yesterday would provide funds at 5.00%. Analysts are saying that it is inevitable that the government will be forced to tap this source of funds or partially default within a year. This is bad news for the EUR.
The EURUSD is now steady in the day and the EURGBP is unchanged. The GBPUSD is up. The Greek short-term bill auction was well subscribed but dealers complained that its yield was disappointingly high.
In the U.K., the general election is May 6. The vote has markets waiting every day for new headlines. A poll released late Monday showed the Conservatives holding onto their slim lead. This goes on for another weeks. Although most polls favor the Tories, opinion poll results have been mixed.
We still maintain a cautiously bearish bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD. The EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is steady. Some report that the SNB has changed tactics and that it has has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF much of the time. The recent relentless weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF continues to be a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is easier, and the EURJPY cross is up. The government continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth and favors an easier exchange rate. On Tuesday a group of junior Japanese ruling party lawmakers (DPJ) called on the government to try to keep USDJPY at 120 to help combat deflation. Some traders have been focused intently on the Japanese vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
Chatter that there is a lot of yen waiting in the wings ready to be sold persists. We remain bullish USDJPY, but EURJPY is a tough call. Some say that an expected CNY revaluation would give the JPY a lift, but we would be surprised if the exchange rate is raised by more than a token amount.
The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. Recent comments by Canadian FinMin Flaherty suggest little concern about the strength of the currency. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy too early. Oil and gold are down. We continue to favor the AUD and CAD from a fundamental perspective.
Far East equities closed easier. European bourses were down modestly. U.S. equities are modestly lower. In U.S. Treasuries, many are watching the psychological 4.00% level in the 10-yr note. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.83%, -1 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:The Far East will see no major data on Wednesday. In Europe , EZ Industrial Production data are due. In North America , Weekly Mortgage Statistics early will be followed by Retail Sales figures and the latest CPI report. The day will also see Business Inventories and Weekly Crude data. Later, the Fedï¿½s Beige Book will be released.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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