The Euro wavered from up a few pips to down a few pips most
of the New York
session as very limited news changed hands. Last night Greece
concluded a successful 6-month and 52 week T-Bill auction. Demand was strong
and the bid-to-cover impressive. Interest rates were high, but better than they
were last week. Traders are now waiting for the next move by Greece. They are either going to be
satisfied with the proceeds of the auction or have to use some of the funds
available from the European Union bailout package. Investors remain cautious
about going long the Euro. Hedge funds are still selling rallies.
The GBP USD traded higher after a better than expected trade
report. The U.K.
trade data showed that the deficit narrowed substantially in February. After
the initial thrust to the upside, the British Pound settled into a range before
British Pound traders are becoming nervous about holding on
to longs ahead of next monthâ€™s elections. Investors are still waiting for
either party to submit a plan to reduce the budget deficit. Mondayâ€™s closing
price reversal top was confirmed, indicating a developing downside bias.
The sideways Euro helped to hold the USD CHF in a range
between two retracement levels at 1.0610 and 1.5068. Look for this pair to
remain range bound until the Euro makes a move. A weaker Euro will pressure the
Swiss Franc. A strong Euro will diminish the possibility of an intervention by
the Swiss National Bank.
The inability to break U.S. equity markets lent some
support to the USD JPY but this pair was still trading lower in limited
trading. This pair is walking down a Gann angle at 93.27. If this angle fails,
then look for an acceleration to 93.67. A continuation of the downtrend could
trigger a break to 92.26.
A rift has developed between the Japanese government and the
Bank of Japan. The government wants the BoJ to be more aggressive in fighting
its battle against deflation.
The USD CAD has been trading in a range for about four days,
indicating impending volatility. Oversold conditions have been contributing to
the low momentum and low volatility. As long as last weekâ€™s reversal bottom at
.9975 holds as support, then there is the possibility of a rally back to 1.0138.
Breaking through the bottom is likely to trigger an acceleration to the
downside, now that a large group of traders have committed to a rate hike on
June 1st rather than in July. Higher interest rates will attract more foreign
buying of the Canadian Dollar.
The AUD USD was under pressure most of the New York session in a follow-through break
following Mondayâ€™s closing price reversal top. Traders are paring positions
after Mondayâ€™s Australian Housing report showed mortgage approvals had dropped
unexpectedly. This could mean the Reserve Bank of Australia may be considering
skipping an interest rate hike at its next session. Traders are adjusting their
positions in anticipation of this taking place. The chart indicates that a move
to .9194 is likely over the near-term.
The NZD USD traded flat to lower most of the day-session.
The lack of buyers and the lack of conviction in holding higher yielding assets
helped to pressure this market. The late session turnaround in the U.S. equity
markets prevented this currency pair from selling off into the close.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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