Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Capital Flows in Command
The Daily Forex View
Capital Flows in Command
10:00 GMT- Apr 14 (global-view.com) The EUR is trading stronger against the USD and especially vs. the JPY today on what appears to be short-covering and perhaps a major order or two. We had heard from sources yesterday that a couple of central banks had been bidding for EURUSD yesterday during N.Y. trading hours. For the moment Greece is off the table, but odds are it has not completely faded as a market factor. Analysts are saying that it is inevitable that the government will be forced to tap the EU source of funds or partially default within a year. This would be bad news for the EUR. The Singapore dollar revalued earlier today on the back of robust economic growth.
Some feel that strong Chinese GDP (due tomorrow) will intensify the pressure on Beijing to revalue the yuan in due course. Comments by President Obama yesterday seemed to indicate that Chinese Premier Hu had rebuked pressure from the U.S. to upwardly adjust its currency.
The EURUSD is now up on the day and the EURGBP is steady. The GBPUSD is up. The focus of trade today appears to be on position adjustments and perhaps reserve diversifications out of the USD..
In the U.K., the general election is May 6. The vote has markets waiting each day for new headlines. A new poll released late Tuesday showed the slim lead of the Conservatives growing. This goes on for another weeks. Although most polls favor the Tories, opinion poll results have been mixed.
We still maintain a cautiously bearish bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD. The EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is firmer. Some have been noting that the SNB has changed tactics and that it has has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF much of the time. The recent relentless weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF has been a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is higher, and the EURJPY cross is up even more. The Hatoyama government continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth and favors an easier exchange rate. A group of junior Japanese ruling party lawmakers (DPJ) called on the government Tuesday to push USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japanese vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
Chatter that there is a lot of yen waiting in the wings ready to be sold persists. We remain bullish USDJPY, but EURJPY is a tough call. Some say that an expected CNY revaluation would give the JPY a lift, but we would be surprised if the exchange rate is raised by more than a token amount.
The risk trade is back on. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are higher. Recent comments by Canadian FinMin Flaherty suggest little concern about the strength of the currency. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy too early. Oil and gold are higher. We continue to favor the AUD and CAD from a fundamental perspective.
Far East equities closed higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are firmer. In U.S. Treasuries, many are watching the psychological 4.00% level in the 10-yr note. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.84%, +2 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, Weekly Mortgage Statistics early will be followed by Retail Sales figures and the latest CPI report. The day will also see Business Inventories and Weekly Crude data. Later, the Fedï¿½s Beige Book will be released.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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